The role of National Bank of Rwanda from 1995 to 2010

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 4.1: Money Stock stationary 3

TABLE 4.2: Inflation Gap stationary 34

Table 4.3: Output Gap stationary 35

TABLE 4.4: Variation of Exchange stationary 36

TABLE 4.5: Previous Money Stock stationary 37

TABLE 4.6: Previous Inflation Gap stationary 38

Table 4.7: previous Output Gap stationary 39

Table 4.8: Previous Variation of Exchange stationary 40

Table 4.9: Error Term stationary 41

APPENDICES

1. Orginal data of used variable in Taylor rule

2. Values of all used variables in Taylor rule

3. AIC and SIC for finding used lags

4. Error correction model

5. Ramsey reset test for model specification

6. Autocorrelation test of Durbin-Watson (DW)

7. Test for cointegration

8. To whom it may concern

9. Access to the library

10. Authorisation of dissertation submission

LIST OF ABBRAVIATIONS

ACHs: Automated Clearing Houses

ADF: Augmented Dickey-Fuller

ATM: Automatic Teller Machine

B.E.R. B: Banque d'Emission du Rwanda et du Burundi

BACAR: Banque Continentale Africaine du Rwanda

BANCOR: Banque à la Confiance d'Or

BCDI: Banque de Commerce, de Development et d'Industries

BCR: Banque Commerciale du Rwanda

BHR: Bank de l'Habitat du Rwanda

BK: Banque de Kigali s.a

BNR: National Bank of Rwanda

BRD: Bank Rwandaise de Development

CAMEL: Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Earnings, and Liquidity

COGEBANQUE: Companie Generale des Banques

CPI: Cost Price Index

CSR: Caisse Socialle du Rwanda

DF: Dickey-Fuller

EFT: Electronic Fund Transfer

ESAF: Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility

GDP: Gross Domestic Product

IMF: International Monetary Found

MFIs: Micro Finance Institutions

NCUA: National Credit Union Association

NGOs: Non-Government Organizations

OLS: Ordinary Least Squared

OMO: Open Market Operating

PRGF: Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility.

RNIS: Rwanda National Institute of Statistics

UOPB: Urwego Opportunity Bank

VAR: Vector Autoregration

VECM: Vector Error Correction Model

WB: World Bank

ABSTRACT

The aim of this dissertation is to study how monetary policy is conducted in Rwanda by National Bank of Rwanda (BNR). The task has been accomplished by designing and estimating a Taylor rule, monetary policy reaction function for the National Bank of Rwanda over the period 1995-2010.

Applying Ordinary Least Squared (OLS) on the time series data, we test whether the Central Bank in Rwanda reacts to changes in the inflation gap, the output gap and the exchange rate. The results of the study show that the Central Bank of Rwanda has had a monetary policy over the years with the monetary stock aggregate (Mt) as the principal instrument. The results also show that the Central Bank of Rwanda reacted by giving much importance to the exchange rate than to inflation and neglected the output.

CHAPTER I: GENERAL INTRODUCTION

1.1. Introduction

Since the views of Schumpeter (1911) on the role of financial development on economic growth, strengthened by empirical works of McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973), and invaluable contribution of Levine (1997) who portrayed the functions through which financial development may affect economic growth, a bulk of studies have been conducted across regions and countries to provide further evidence on the link between financial development and economic growth toward development. It is in this spirit that we have undertaken this study to determine whether there is evidence of relationship between financial development supervised by National Bank of Rwanda (NBR) and economic growth in Rwanda.

This chapter presents the knowledge gap to be filled, problem statement and objectives alongside the significance, justification, identification of research and hypotheses of the study. Moreover, the chapter shows at what extend the study is relevant for Rwanda, highlights the scope and limitations, the organization of the study and summary.

The central bank is the most important institutions in a financial system. It occupies a unique position in the monetary and banking system of the country in which it operates. The central bank is always inspired by the principle of national welfare and in order to achieve this it must be done not under the influence of government, the reason being that the economy problem of the country cannot be satisfactorily solved without the fullest co-operations between the central bank and the government (Foundations of banking, 2005)

The central bank should under no circumstances compete with other banks that is receiving deposits from the public or extending loans to needy borrowers.

If it competes with other banks, this will conflict with its important function of being the bankers' bank, controller of credit and lender of last resort (comparative banking systems, 2005).