WOW !! MUCH LOVE ! SO WORLD PEACE !
Fond bitcoin pour l'amélioration du site: 1memzGeKS7CB3ECNkzSn2qHwxU6NZoJ8o
Dogecoin (tips/pourboires): DCLoo9Dd4qECqpMLurdgGnaoqbftj16Nvp

Home | Publier un mémoire | Une page au hasard

Memoire Online >

Economie et Finance

Banques et croissance économique

( Télécharger le fichier original )
par Odilon Modeste ALAVO
Université d'Abomey Calavi- Bénin - Master recherche en sciences économiques 2009

précédent sommaire suivant

Bitcoin is a swarm of cyber hornets serving the goddess of wisdom, feeding on the fire of truth, exponentially growing ever smarter, faster, and stronger behind a wall of encrypted energy

ANNEXES

600

500

400

300

200

100

LH1

LC1

LL1

70 75 80 85 90 95 00

LD1

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

70 75 80 85 90 95 00

LI1

LY1

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

70 75 80 85 90 95 00

LV1

70 75 80 85 90 95 00

4000

3000

2000

1000

70 75 80 85 90 95 00

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

2000

1500

1000

500

4000

3000

2000

1000

70 75 80 85 90 95 00

Illustration graphique des séries (échantillon 1, l'ensemble des
pays)

10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0

70 75 80 85 90 95 00

LY1 LL1 LC 1

LD 1 LI1 LV1

LH 1

TEST DE RACINE UNITAIRE (Augmented Dickey Fuller) Test en niveau LY1

ADF Test Statistic -1.333631 1% Critical Value* -4.2605

5% Critical Value -3.5514

10% Critical Value -3.2081

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LY1) Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/31/09 Time: 17:23 Sample(adjusted): 1972 2004 Included observations: 33 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
LY1(-1)	-0.161056	0.120765 -1.333631	0.1927
D(LY1(-1))	0.073784	0.196933 0.374665	0.7106
C	265.6855	152.3807 1.743563	0.0918
@TREND(1970)	5.661507	11.10387 0.509868	0.6140
R-squared	0.088087	Mean dependent var	44.42121
Adjusted R-squared	-0.006249	S.D. dependent var	342.2448
S.E. of regression	343.3124	Akaike info criterion	14.62837
Sum squared resid	3418039.	Schwarz criterion	14.80977
Log likelihood	-237.3681	F-statistic	0.933763
Durbin-Watson stat	2.016349	Prob(F-statistic)	0.436971
En Différence première
ADF Test Statistic -3.855490		1% Critical Value*	-4.2712
		5% Critical Value	-3.5562
		10% Critical Value	-3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LY1,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/31/09 Time: 17:26

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LY1(-1))	-1.049021	0.272085 -3.855490	0.0006
D(LY1(-1),2)	0.015051	0.189173 0.079564	0.9371
C	175.5644	149.9251 1.171014	0.2515
@TREND(1970)	-7.019125	7.137056 -0.983476	0.3338
R-squared	0.516330	Mean dependent var	-0.656250
Adjusted R-squared	0.464508	S.D. dependent var	491.4087
S.E. of regression	359.5996	Akaike info criterion	14.72433
Sum squared resid	3620733.	Schwarz criterion	14.90755
Log likelihood	-231.5893	F-statistic	9.963572
Durbin-Watson stat	1.997958	Prob(F-statistic)	0.000123
Test en niveau LL1
ADF Test Statistic -0.368433		1% Critical Value*	-4.2605
		5% Critical Value	-3.5514
		10% Critical Value	-3.2081

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LL1)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/31/09 Time: 17:27

Sample(adjusted): 1972 2004

Included observations: 33 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
LL1(-1)	-0.008949	0.024290 -0.368433	0.7152
D(LL1(-1))	0.142345	0.182297 0.780839	0.4412
C	7.942003	3.980121 1.995417	0.0555
@TREND(1970)	1.403013	0.848709 1.653114	0.1091
R-squared	0.801714	Mean dependent var	33.48061
Adjusted R-squared	0.781201	S.D. dependent var	14.03044
S.E. of regression	6.562869	Akaike info criterion	6.713945
Sum squared resid	1249.066	Schwarz criterion	6.895340
Log likelihood	-106.7801	F-statistic	39.08435
Durbin-Watson stat	2.007209	Prob(F-statistic)	0.000000
En Différence Première
ADF Test Statistic -3.589994		1% Critical Value*	-4.2712
		5% Critical Value	-3.5562
		10% Critical Value	-3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LL1,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/31/09 Time: 17:28

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LL1(-1))	-0.862467	0.245019 -3.519994	0.0015
D(LL1(-1),2)	-0.019675	0.186354 -0.105579	0.9167
C	9.880086	3.315551 2.979923	0.0059
@TREND(1970)	1.079930	0.337585 3.198984	0.0034
R-squared	0.448019	Mean dependent var	1.585937
Adjusted R-squared	0.388878	S.D. dependent var	8.427825
S.E. of regression	6.588393	Akaike info criterion	6.724965
Sum squared resid	1215.394	Schwarz criterion	6.908182
Log likelihood	-103.5994	F-statistic	7.575454
Durbin-Watson stat	2.024481	Prob(F-statistic)	0.000735
Test en niveau LC1
ADF Test Statistic -1.385535		1% Critical Value*	-4.2605
		5% Critical Value	-3.5514
		10% Critical Value	-3.2081

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LC1)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/31/09 Time: 17:31

Sample(adjusted): 1972 2004

Included observations: 33 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
LC1(-1)	-0.134922	0.097379 -1.385535	0.1765
D(LC1(-1))	-0.004368	0.187722 -0.023270	0.9816
C	12.27152	5.512383 2.226174	0.0339
@TREND(1970)	0.110237	0.263161 0.418897	0.6784
R-squared	0.118695	Mean dependent var	2.093939
Adjusted R-squared	0.027526	S.D. dependent var	7.586746
S.E. of regression	7.481601	Akaike info criterion	6.975983
Sum squared resid	1623.256	Schwarz criterion	7.157378
Log likelihood	-111.1037	F-statistic	1.301922
Durbin-Watson stat	2.015896	Prob(F-statistic)	0.292632
En Différence Première
ADF Test Statistic -4.388598		1% Critical Value*	-4.2712
		5% Critical Value	-3.5562
		10% Critical Value	-3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LC1,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/31/09 Time: 17:32

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LC1(-1))	-1.216374	0.277167 -4.388598	0.0001
D(LC1(-1),2)	0.118951	0.187897 0.633067	0.5318
C	7.098303	3.481207 2.039035	0.0510
@TREND(1970)	-0.245946	0.159366 -1.543282	0.1340
R-squared	0.549361	Mean dependent var	0.028125
Adjusted R-squared	0.501079	S.D. dependent var	11.01076
S.E. of regression	7.777383	Akaike info criterion	7.056785
Sum squared resid	1693.655	Schwarz criterion	7.240002
Log likelihood	-108.9086	F-statistic	11.37802
Durbin-Watson stat	2.032879	Prob(F-statistic)	0.000047
Test en niveau LD1
ADF Test Statistic -1.205804		1% Critical Value*	-4.2605
		5% Critical Value	-3.5514
		10% Critical Value	-3.2081

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LD1) Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/31/09 Time: 17:33 Sample(adjusted): 1972 2004 Included observations: 33 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
LD1(-1)	-0.100863	0.083648 -1.205804	0.2376
D(LD1(-1))	0.004461	0.187048 0.023848	0.9811
C	41.88263	18.57762 2.254466	0.0319
@TREND(1970)	0.142413	0.962529 0.147957	0.8834
R-squared	0.117384	Mean dependent var	8.766667
Adjusted R-squared	0.026079	S.D. dependent var	28.49537
S.E. of regression	28.12135	Akaike info criterion	9.624148
Sum squared resid	22933.50	Schwarz criterion	9.805542
Log likelihood	-154.7984	F-statistic	1.285625
Durbin-Watson stat	2.015066	Prob(F-statistic)	0.297914
En Différence Première
ADF Test Statistic -4.195187		1% Critical Value*	-4.2712
		5% Critical Value	-3.5562
		10% Critical Value	-3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LD1,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/31/09 Time: 17:35 Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004 Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LD1(-1))	-1.148938	0.273871 -4.195187	0.0002
D(LD1(-1),2)	0.083708	0.188148 0.444906	0.6598
C	28.36144	13.34173 2.125770	0.0425
@TREND(1970)	-0.987474	0.603956 -1.635009	0.1132
R-squared	0.533863	Mean dependent var	-0.025000
Adjusted R-squared	0.483920	S.D. dependent var	40.50511
S.E. of regression	29.09835	Akaike info criterion	9.695708
Sum squared resid	23707.99	Schwarz criterion	9.878925
Log likelihood	-151.1313	F-statistic	10.68940
Durbin-Watson stat	2.017042	Prob(F-statistic)	0.000074
Test en niveau LI1
ADF Test Statistic -1.675700		1% Critical Value*	-4.2605
		5% Critical Value	-3.5514
		10% Critical Value	-3.2081

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LI1)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/31/09 Time: 17:37

Sample(adjusted): 1972 2004

Included observations: 33 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
LI1(-1)	-0.309553	0.184731 -1.675700	0.1045
D(LI1(-1))	-0.121786	0.200209 -0.608297	0.5477
C	388.2784	539.9711 0.719072	0.4779
@TREND(1970)	19.24918	36.49316 0.527474	0.6019
R-squared	0.181352	Mean dependent var	25.39394
Adjusted R-squared	0.096664	S.D. dependent var	1514.190
S.E. of regression	1439.147	Akaike info criterion	17.49470
Sum squared resid	60063147	Schwarz criterion	17.67610
Log likelihood	-284.6626	F-statistic	2.141414
Durbin-Watson stat	1.985292	Prob(F-statistic)	0.116584
En Différence Première
ADF Test Statistic -4.853837		1% Critical Value*	-4.2712
		5% Critical Value	-3.5562
		10% Critical Value	-3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LI1,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/31/09 Time: 17:38

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LI1(-1))	-1.470098	0.302873 -4.853837	0.0000
D(LI1(-1),2)	0.128508	0.187626 0.684916	0.4990
C	554.6303	612.9929 0.904791	0.3733
@TREND(1970)	-28.06257	29.70124 -0.944828	0.3528
R-squared	0.656903	Mean dependent var	-0.412500
Adjusted R-squared	0.620142	S.D. dependent var	2466.083
S.E. of regression	1519.911	Akaike info criterion	17.60716
Sum squared resid	64683649	Schwarz criterion	17.79038
Log likelihood	-277.7146	F-statistic	17.86982
Durbin-Watson stat	2.023657	Prob(F-statistic)	0.000001
Test en niveau LV1
ADF Test Statistic -1.473408		1% Critical Value*	-4.2605
		5% Critical Value	-3.5514
		10% Critical Value	-3.2081

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LV1) Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/31/09 Time: 17:39 Sample(adjusted): 1972 2004 Included observations: 33 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
LV1(-1)	-0.198246	0.134549 -1.473408	0.1514
D(LV1(-1))	0.077681	0.197653 0.393017	0.6972
C	245.7904	187.6859 1.309584	0.2006
@TREND(1970)	17.01945	19.01135 0.895225	0.3780
R-squared	0.090744	Mean dependent var	74.53333
Adjusted R-squared	-0.003317	S.D. dependent var	490.8794
S.E. of regression	491.6929	Akaike info criterion	15.34680
Sum squared resid	7011094.	Schwarz criterion	15.52819
Log likelihood	-249.2222	F-statistic	0.964738
Durbin-Watson stat	2.012056	Prob(F-statistic)	0.422636
En Différence Première
ADF Test Statistic -3.911694		1% Critical Value*	-4.2712
		5% Critical Value	-3.5562
		10% Critical Value	-3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LV1,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/31/09 Time: 17:41

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LV1(-1))	-1.068063	0.273044 -3.911694	0.0005
D(LV1(-1),2)	0.018700	0.188621 0.099142	0.9217
C	235.5522	213.1995 1.104844	0.2786
@TREND(1970)	-8.433431	10.11882 -0.833440	0.4117
R-squared	0.524782	Mean dependent var	-2.503125
Adjusted R-squared	0.473866	S.D. dependent var	714.4091
S.E. of regression	518.1975	Akaike info criterion	15.45506
Sum squared resid	7518802.	Schwarz criterion	15.63828
Log likelihood	-243.2809	F-statistic	10.30677
Durbin-Watson stat	2.003172	Prob(F-statistic)	0.000097
Test en niveau LH1
ADF Test Statistic 0.232643		1% Critical Value*	-4.2605
		5% Critical Value	-3.5514
		10% Critical Value	-3.2081

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LH1) Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/31/09 Time: 17:42 Sample(adjusted): 1972 2004 Included observations: 33 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
LH1(-1)	0.009822	0.042220 0.232643	0.8177
D(LH1(-1))	0.457047	0.183905 2.485230	0.0190
C	-8.727067	19.59044 -0.445476	0.6593
@TREND(1970)	2.006774	2.119978 0.946601	0.3517
R-squared	0.626330	Mean dependent var	55.14333
Adjusted R-squared	0.587675	S.D. dependent var	55.03372
S.E. of regression	35.33855	Akaike info criterion	10.08104
Sum squared resid	36215.59	Schwarz criterion	10.26243
Log likelihood	-162.3371	F-statistic	16.20288
Durbin-Watson stat	1.900065	Prob(F-statistic)	0.000002
En Différence Première
ADF Test Statistic -3.855490		1% Critical Value*	-4.2712
		5% Critical Value	-3.5562
		10% Critical Value	-3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LH1,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/31/09 Time: 17:49

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

LY1 LL1 LC1 LD1 LI1

LY1(-1) 0.789156 0.221885 0.467481 14.61628 0.719118

(0.39209) (0.81436) (1.99295) (12.1998) (3.79751)

(2.01270) (0.27246) (0.23457) (1.19808) (0.18937)

LL1(-1) -1.443669 -1.357253 -5.813946 26.94642 -8.756328

(0.38402) (0.79760) (1.95194) (11.9487) (3.71936)

(-3.75936) (-1.70167) (-2.97855) (2.25517) (-2.35426)

LV1	LH1
45.76870	3.966643
(59.1796)	(2.31994)
(0.77339)	(1.70980)
137.5571	-2.330918
(57.9618)	(2.27220)
(2.37324)	(-1.02584)
Variable		Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LH1(-1))		-1.049021	0.272085 -3.855490	0.0006
D(LH1(-1),2)		0.015051	0.189173 0.079564	0.9371
C		175.5644	149.9251 1.171014	0.2515
@TREND(1970)		-7.019125	7.137056 -0.983476	0.3338
R-squared		0.516330	Mean dependent var	-0.656250
Adjusted R-squared		0.464508	S.D. dependent var	491.4087
S.E. of regression		359.5996	Akaike info criterion	14.72433
Sum squared resid		3620733.	Schwarz criterion	14.90755
Log likelihood		-231.5893	F-statistic	9.963572
Durbin-Watson stat		1.997958	Prob(F-statistic)	0.000123
Stationnarité des Résidus
ADF Test Statistic -2.787108			1% Critical Value*	-2.6344
			5% Critical Value	-1.9514
			10% Critical Value	-1.6211

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(RESID01)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 22:57

Sample(adjusted): 1972 2004

Included observations: 33 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
RESID01(-1)	-0.613236	0.220026 -2.787108	0.0090
D(RESID01(-1))	-0.156247	0.193450 -0.807687	0.4254
R-squared	0.344826	Mean dependent var	1.95E-11
Adjusted R-squared	0.323692	S.D. dependent var	5.68E-10
S.E. of regression	4.67E-10	Akaike info criterion	-40.07093
Sum squared resid	6.77E-18	Schwarz criterion	-39.98023
Log likelihood	663.1703	Durbin-Watson stat	1.833330

Nombre optimal de retard Q=1

Date: 02/01/09 Time: 18:42

Sample(adjusted): 1971 2004

Included observations: 34 after adjusting endpoints Standard errors & t-statistics in parentheses

LC1(-1) 0.555657	0.756198	2.884456	-12.51171	3.359137	-53.12095	-0.368271
(0.20572)	(0.42728)	(1.04566)	(6.40099)	(1.99248)	(31.0504)	(1.21723)
(2.70101)	(1.76980)	(2.75850)	(-1.95465)	(1.68591)	(-1.71080)	(-0.30255)
LD1(-1) 0.010509	0.010865	0.044544	0.818880	-0.075068	6.828004	-0.059750
(0.00438)	(0.00911)	(0.02229)	(0.13643)	(0.04247)	(0.66180)	(0.02594)
(2.39677)	(1.19306)	(1.99868)	(6.00228)	(-1.76768)	(10.3174)	(-2.30308)
LI1(-1) -0.018501	-0.032962	-0.091962	0.138215	0.815653	-3.711244	0.125323
(0.00989)	(0.02055)	(0.05029)	(0.30783)	(0.09582)	(1.49325)	(0.05854)
(-1.87007)	(-1.60412)	(-1.82873)	(0.44900)	(8.51230)	(-2.48535)	(2.14088)
LV1(-1) -0.002788	-0.003678	-0.011752	0.009393	-0.024062	-0.058508	0.004722
(0.00068)	(0.00142)	(0.00348)	(0.02129)	(0.00663)	(0.10330)	(0.00405)
(-4.07337)	(-2.58729)	(-3.37818)	(0.44108)	(-3.63000)	(-0.56639)	(1.16613)
LH1(-1) 0.021146	0.048898	0.120749	-0.111164	0.610032	-0.378836	0.846917
(0.02000)	(0.04153)	(0.10164)	(0.62217)	(0.19367)	(3.01806)	(0.11831)
(1.05754)	(1.17738)	(1.18804)	(-0.17867)	(3.14992)	(-0.12552)	(7.15827)
C -37.92026	-53.25763	-129.0867	945.7084	-198.4155	2781.043	-28.08353
(15.0029)	(31.1607)	(76.2582)	(466.812)	(145.308)	(2264.45)	(88.7704)
(-2.52753)	(-1.70913)	(-1.69276)	(2.02589)	(-1.36548)	(1.22813)	(-0.31636)
R-squared 0.983964	0.947299	0.966736	0.969873	0.998650	0.917305	0.997167
Adj. R-squared 0.979646	0.933110	0.957780	0.961762	0.998286	0.895041	0.996404
Sum sq. resids 484.7825	2091.281	12524.78	469334.0	45475.29	11043900	16972.03
S.E. equation 4.318041	8.968494	21.94818	134.3551	41.82164	651.7403	25.54937
F-statistic 227.9033	66.76429	107.9462	119.5729	2746.967	41.20140	1307.237
Log likelihood -93.41869	-118.2698	-148.6987	-210.3000	-170.6195	-263.9914	-153.8642
Akaike AIC 5.965805	7.427637	9.217569	12.84117	10.50703	15.99949	9.521426
Schwarz SC 6.324949	7.786780	9.576713	13.20032	10.86617	16.35864	9.880570
Mean dependent 85.18235	87.51471	356.4265	1289.097	1631.450	2247.682	444.1676
S.D. dependent 30.26667	34.67689	106.8170	687.0767	1010.214	2011.711	426.0549
Determinant Residual	4.05E+16
Covariance
Log Likelihood	-987.7931
Akaike Information Criteria	61.39959
Schwarz Criteria	63.91360

Q=2

Date: 02/01/09 Time: 18:44

Sample(adjusted): 1972 2004

Included observations: 33 after adjusting endpoints Standard errors & t-statistics in parentheses

LY1 LL1 LC1 LD1 LI1 LV1 LH1

LY1(-1) 0.913838 -1.630209 -2.193834 -12.69141 8.356108 -41.56414 3.332516

(2.08576) (4.28587) (10.5963) (55.6020) (17.9949) (194.755) (11.9564)

(0.43813) (-0.38037) (-0.20704) (-0.22825) (0.46436) (-0.21342) (0.27872)

LY1(-2) 0.077761 1.854241 3.031097 42.09998 -2.868094 28.21537 2.137697

(1.79911) (3.69685) (9.14003) (47.9604) (15.5218) (167.989) (10.3132)

(0.04322) (0.50157) (0.33163) (0.87781) (-0.18478) (0.16796) (0.20728)

LL1(-1) -0.928024 -0.652049 -3.816553 72.08520 -12.25157 -135.1702 -1.755943

(1.58152) (3.24974) (8.03462) (42.1599) (13.6446) (147.672) (9.06588)

	(-0.58679)	(-0.20065)	(-0.47501)	(1.70980)	(-0.89791)	(-0.91534)	(-0.19369)
LL1(-2)	-0.850227	-2.327244	-5.335681	-20.08738	7.321730	105.0177	1.195592
	(1.45528)	(2.99035)	(7.39330)	(38.7947)	(12.5555)	(135.885)	(8.34225)
	(-0.58423)	(-0.77825)	(-0.72169)	(-0.51779)	(0.58315)	(0.77284)	(0.14332)
LC1(-1)	0.276468	0.718781	2.338361	-26.64799	3.902014	82.14110	-0.130678
	(1.00041)	(2.05565)	(5.08237)	(26.6686)	(8.63099)	(93.4112)	(5.73470)
	(0.27636)	(0.34966)	(0.46009)	(-0.99923)	(0.45209)	(0.87935)	(-0.02279)
LC1(-2)	0.391333	0.684291	1.820541	3.277858	-3.300162	-72.24742	-1.346854
	(0.85800)	(1.76304)	(4.35893)	(22.8725)	(7.40243)	(80.1147)	(4.91840)
	(0.45610)	(0.38813)	(0.41766)	(0.14331)	(-0.44582)	(-0.90180)	(-0.27384)
LD1(-1)	0.008612	0.011068	0.045559	0.021894	-0.082956	11.15087	-0.091627
	(0.01058)	(0.02174)	(0.05376)	(0.28207)	(0.09129)	(0.98800)	(0.06066)
	(0.81390)	(0.50907)	(0.84752)	(0.07762)	(-0.90871)	(11.2863)	(-1.51061)
LD1(-2)	0.017779	0.025568	0.062042	2.181817	-0.046157	-11.55113	0.058055
	(0.02445)	(0.05023)	(0.12420)	(0.65170)	(0.21092)	(2.28269)	(0.14014)
	(0.72726)	(0.50899)	(0.49954)	(3.34788)	(-0.21884)	(-5.06032)	(0.41427)
LI1(-1)	-0.043954	-0.075647	-0.205856	-0.345201	0.937621	0.849773	0.053844
	(0.02503)	(0.05144)	(0.12718)	(0.66735)	(0.21598)	(2.33752)	(0.14350)
	(-1.75575)	(-1.47058)	(-1.61861)	(-0.51727)	(4.34121)	(0.36354)	(0.37520)
LI1(-2)	-0.007047	-0.017132	-0.035767	-0.409239	0.031044	0.683291	0.166546
	(0.02308)	(0.04742)	(0.11724)	(0.61521)	(0.19911)	(2.15488)	(0.13229)
	(-0.30535)	(-0.36127)	(-0.30506)	(-0.66520)	(0.15592)	(0.31709)	(1.25892)
LV1(-1)	-0.003749	-0.004632	-0.014083	-0.153050	-0.032759	0.820692	-0.003798
	(0.00252)	(0.00518)	(0.01280)	(0.06716)	(0.02174)	(0.23524)	(0.01444)
	(-1.48804)	(-0.89476)	(-1.10035)	(-2.27889)	(-1.50718)	(3.48876)	(-0.26296)
LV1(-2)	-0.002974	-0.006338	-0.015318	-0.074869	0.025453	0.360269	0.004800
	(0.00153)	(0.00314)	(0.00777)	(0.04077)	(0.01320)	(0.14281)	(0.00877)
	(-1.94447)	(-2.01672)	(-1.97131)	(-1.83625)	(1.92892)	(2.52267)	(0.54747)
LH1(-1)	0.017946	0.024955	0.076244	-0.279083	-0.136284	-2.386292	0.698342
	(0.04208)	(0.08646)	(0.21377)	(1.12174)	(0.36304)	(3.92906)	(0.24121)
	(0.42647)	(0.28861)	(0.35665)	(-0.24880)	(-0.37540)	(-0.60734)	(2.89513)
LH1(-2)	0.053845	0.116839	0.283545	0.243400	0.522562	-0.159126	-0.065144
	(0.03737)	(0.07679)	(0.18986)	(0.99627)	(0.32243)	(3.48958)	(0.21423)
	(1.44076)	(1.52147)	(1.49342)	(0.24431)	(1.62070)	(-0.04560)	(-0.30408)
C	-43.50496	-94.57336	-207.6369	1689.849	-69.24280	-1823.785	13.29672
	(26.9050)	(55.2849)	(136.686)	(717.229)	(232.123)	(2512.21)	(154.230)
	(-1.61698)	(-1.71065)	(-1.51908)	(2.35608)	(-0.29830)	(-0.72597)	(0.08621)
R-squared	0.987620	0.960267	0.974094	0.983947	0.999233	0.977749	0.998127
Adj. R-squared	0.977991	0.929364	0.953945	0.971461	0.998636	0.960443	0.996669
Sum sq. resids	330.7812	1396.655	8537.317	235066.4	24621.28	2883943.	10869.53
S.E. equation	4.286809	8.808629	21.77832	114.2771	36.98444	400.2737	24.57362
F-statistic	102.5667	31.07328	48.34435	78.80387	1674.036	56.49670	685.0114
Log likelihood	-84.85664	-108.6229	-138.4939	-193.1984	-155.9701	-234.5646	-142.4790
Akaike AIC	6.051918	7.492296	9.302662	12.61808	10.36183	15.12513	9.544179
Schwarz SC	6.732148	8.172526	9.982893	13.29831	11.04206	15.80536	10.22441
Mean dependent	86.95152	89.52424	362.8970	1317.976	1669.158	2306.945	457.1203
S.D. dependent	28.89559	33.14323	101.4813	676.4506	1001.284	2012.537	425.8085
Determinant Residual		4.05E+14

Covariance

Log Likelihood -882.7334

Akaike Information Criteria 53.38872

Schwarz Criteria 60.44257

Q=3

Date: 02/01/09 Time: 18:45

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints Standard errors & t-statistics in parentheses

LY1 LL1 LC1 LD1 LI1 LV1 LH1

LY1(-1) -0.799434 -3.630197 -8.283425 24.11953 15.11625 -123.7206 8.354567

(2.64445) (5.08428) (12.9372) (63.8412) (15.8513) (215.806) (13.3906)

(-0.30231) (-0.71400) (-0.64028) (0.37781) (0.95363) (-0.57330) (0.62391)

LY1(-2) -1.792642 -4.177081 -9.908928 125.0923 18.76423 -315.1959 -17.82704

(3.33054) (6.40337) (16.2937) (80.4043) (19.9638) (271.795) (16.8646)

(-0.53824) (-0.65233) (-0.60814) (1.55579) (0.93991) (-1.15968) (-1.05707)

LY1(-3) 3.159896 7.134746 17.24718 -99.36813 -29.34967 415.4750 14.47576

(2.02468) (3.89269) (9.90515) (48.8788) (12.1362) (165.228) (10.2522)

(1.56069) (1.83286) (1.74123) (-2.03295) (-2.41835) (2.51456) (1.41196)

LL1(-1) -1.647734 -2.186819 -7.699288 79.47685 -12.26726 -170.8321 -10.69164

(1.60472) (3.08526) (7.85062) (38.7403) (9.61892) (130.956) (8.12571)

(-1.02681) (-0.70879) (-0.98072) (2.05153) (-1.27533) (-1.30450) (-1.31578)

LL1(-2) -0.990027 -3.214814 -5.851639 0.968251 -2.811784 131.7574 9.216998

(2.26064) (4.34636) (11.0595) (54.5753) (13.5506) (184.484) (11.4471)

(-0.43794) (-0.73966) (-0.52910) (0.01774) (-0.20750) (0.71419) (0.80518)

LL1(-3) 0.351572 0.782715 0.958173 -25.98542 3.495470 -12.70602 -2.638364

(1.51881) (2.92009) (7.43032) (36.6663) (9.10395) (123.945) (7.69068)

(0.23148) (0.26804) (0.12895) (-0.70870) (0.38395) (-0.10251) (-0.34306)

LC1(-1) 0.820212 1.578241 4.692385 -35.19632 3.140050 100.9792 2.620612

(1.04140) (2.00221) (5.09473) (25.1409) (6.24228) (84.9852) (5.27325)

(0.78761) (0.78825) (0.92103) (-1.39996) (0.50303) (1.18820) (0.49696)

LC1(-2) 0.781179 2.172210 4.441562 -19.55906 -2.587554 -16.20735 -0.380550

(1.39580) (2.68360) (6.82857) (33.6969) (8.36666) (113.907) (7.06785)

(0.55966) (0.80944) (0.65044) (-0.58044) (-0.30927) (-0.14229) (-0.05384)

LC1(-3) -0.562194 -1.401859 -2.931816 22.63674 1.755221 -52.40406 -2.689552

(0.89494) (1.72064) (4.37825) (21.6053) (5.36443) (73.0337) (4.53167)

(-0.62819) (-0.81473) (-0.66963) (1.04774) (0.32720) (-0.71753) (-0.59350)

LD1(-1) -0.008746 -0.019285 -0.038999 0.322787 0.064007 9.094339 -0.121631

(0.01495) (0.02875) (0.07315) (0.36097) (0.08963) (1.22021) (0.07571)

(-0.58492) (-0.67085) (-0.53313) (0.89422) (0.71416) (7.45308) (-1.60647)

LD1(-2) 0.005249 0.014601 0.033863 3.249835 0.364282 -11.09972 0.237531

(0.03444) (0.06622) (0.16849) (0.83147) (0.20645) (2.81065) (0.17440)

(0.15241) (0.22049) (0.20098) (3.90856) (1.76453) (-3.94917) (1.36201)

LD1(-3) 0.075861 0.109030 0.311130 -2.927112 -1.136003 8.599341 -0.258010

(0.06233) (0.11985) (0.30495) (1.50485) (0.37364) (5.08694) (0.31564)

(1.21700) (0.90975) (1.02025) (-1.94512) (-3.04034) (1.69047) (-0.81742)

LI1(-1) 0.012642 0.025739 0.058746 -1.095061 0.682587 4.548384 0.153658

(0.04107) (0.07897) (0.20093) (0.99154) (0.24619) (3.35177) (0.20797)

(0.30779) (0.32595) (0.29237) (-1.10440) (2.77258) (1.35701) (0.73883)

LI1(-2) -0.108085 -0.211008 -0.530559 -0.164971 0.074455 -4.346295 0.120089

(0.05339) (0.10265) (0.26121) (1.28897) (0.32004) (4.35717) (0.27036)

(-2.02437) (-2.05555) (-2.03120) (-0.12799) (0.23264) (-0.99750) (0.44418)

LI1(-3) 0.013697 0.046416 0.092228 1.565890 0.654318 -5.754602 0.197511

(0.02717) (0.05225) (0.13294) (0.65604) (0.16289) (2.21765) (0.13760)

(0.50402) (0.88840) (0.69373) (2.38688) (4.01694) (-2.59491) (1.43537)

LV1(-1) -0.003154 -0.004491 -0.013738 -0.211693 -0.059043 0.741015 -0.025048

(0.00326) (0.00626) (0.01593) (0.07862) (0.01952) (0.26575) (0.01649)

(-0.96864) (-0.71732) (-0.86233) (-2.69277) (-3.02480) (2.78841) (-1.51902)

LV1(-2) -0.008850 -0.014706 -0.038568 0.178667 0.112002 -0.333731 0.040387

(0.00585) (0.01124) (0.02860) (0.14115) (0.03505) (0.47713) (0.02961)

(-1.51374) (-1.30821) (-1.34838) (1.26581) (3.19585) (-0.69945) (1.36417)

LV1(-3) -0.004630 -0.008084 -0.022178 0.068971 0.030148 -0.488203 0.000927

(0.00290) (0.00558) (0.01419) (0.07003) (0.01739) (0.23674) (0.01469)

(-1.59591) (-1.44948) (-1.56268) (0.98484) (1.73376) (-2.06220) (0.06309)

LH1(-1) -0.019424 -0.035011 -0.087056 -0.239999 -0.118951 0.135563 0.490284

(0.05762) (0.11077) (0.28187) (1.39095) (0.34536) (4.70192) (0.29175)

(-0.33713) (-0.31605) (-0.30885) (-0.17254) (-0.34442) (0.02883) (1.68049)

LH1(-2) 0.079116 0.138564 0.357571 0.645125 0.671919 -3.656440 -0.078764

(0.06212) (0.11943) (0.30390) (1.49967) (0.37236) (5.06942) (0.31455)

(1.27360) (1.16018) (1.17659) (0.43018) (1.80451) (-0.72127) (-0.25040)

LH1(-3) 0.008580 0.032720 0.082264 -0.177656 -0.170403 4.970051 -0.164169

(0.05946) (0.11432) (0.29090) (1.43549) (0.35642) (4.85249) (0.30109)

(0.14430) (0.28621) (0.28279) (-0.12376) (-0.47809) (1.02423) (-0.54525)

C -73.89154 -171.8166 -375.9236 2359.007 -219.6893 -3271.800 -139.5288

(35.0080) (67.3072) (171.267) (845.147) (209.843) (2856.90) (177.268)

(-2.11070) (-2.55272) (-2.19496) (2.79124) (-1.04692) (-1.14523) (-0.78711)

R-squared 0.992973 0.980281 0.986219 0.993080 0.999808 0.991355 0.999254

Adj. R-squared 0.978215 0.938871 0.957279 0.978548 0.999404 0.973200 0.997687

Sum sq. resids 163.1692 603.1510 3905.248 95097.28 5862.647 1086660. 4183.730

S.E. equation 4.039420 7.766280 19.76170 97.51784 24.21290 329.6452 20.45417

F-statistic 67.28662 23.67269 34.07779 68.33655 2476.705 54.60601 637.6744

Log likelihood -71.47086 -92.38894 -122.2755 -173.3567 -128.7760 -212.3322 -123.3776

Akaike AIC 5.841929 7.149309 9.017218 12.20980 9.423498 14.64576 9.086100

Schwarz SC 6.849622 8.157002 10.02491 13.21749 10.43119 15.65345 10.09379

Mean dependent 88.77188 91.60312 369.5094 1347.178 1707.891 2367.819 470.7206

S.D. dependent 27.36803 31.41162 95.60974 665.8053 991.8695 2013.637 425.2773

Determinant Residual 2.39E+10

Covariance

Log Likelihood -700.2195

Akaike Information Criteria 59.86263

Schwarz Criteria 64.62424

Q=4

Date: 02/01/09 Time: 18:47

Sample(adjusted): 1974 2004

Included observations: 31 after adjusting endpoints Standard errors & t-statistics in parentheses

LY1 LL1 LC1 LD1 LI1 LV1 LH1

LY1(-1) 5.344082 6.702909 20.76125 -132.4906 80.91659 199.2077 40.93642

(7.93816) (20.6256) (48.0078) (285.335) (27.7891) (367.445) (27.2057)

(0.67321) (0.32498) (0.43246) (-0.46433) (2.91181) (0.54214) (1.50470)

LY1(-2) -7.823182 -13.16963 -35.80192 239.5359 -22.82968 -443.7527 -24.77193

(4.16659) (10.8260) (25.1984) (149.767) (14.5860) (192.865) (14.2797)

(-1.87760) (-1.21648) (-1.42080) (1.59939) (-1.56518) (-2.30085) (-1.73476)

LY1(-3) 10.33632 20.37881 52.24529 -165.0990 -1.714039 405.8983 -0.970132

(6.59507) (17.1359) (39.8851) (237.058) (23.0874) (305.275) (22.6026)

(1.56728) (1.18925) (1.30989) (-0.69645) (-0.07424) (1.32961) (-0.04292)

LY1(-4) -3.251433 -8.441097 -20.40365 42.75031 -23.33829 -125.3120 5.446886

(8.32275) (21.6249) (50.3337) (299.159) (29.1355) (385.247) (28.5238)

(-0.39067) (-0.39034) (-0.40537) (0.14290) (-0.80103) (-0.32528) (0.19096)

LL1(-1) 6.719979 11.73586 31.39649 -141.2574 41.62122 83.25204 26.09970

(5.89468) (15.3161) (35.6494) (211.883) (20.6355) (272.856) (20.2023)

(1.14001) (0.76625) (0.88070) (-0.66668) (2.01697) (0.30511) (1.29192)

LL1(-2) -6.303110 -11.10665 -29.47978 163.1058 -42.10251 -157.2869 -22.41640

(3.87848) (10.0774) (23.4560) (139.411) (13.5774) (179.529) (13.2923)

(-1.62515) (-1.10214) (-1.25681) (1.16996) (-3.10093) (-0.87611) (-1.68641)

LL1(-3) 6.402472 12.11825 31.32336 -101.5073 6.164936 56.31505 1.572117

(2.99871) (7.79150) (18.1354) (107.788) (10.4976) (138.806) (10.2772)

(2.13507) (1.55532) (1.72720) (-0.94173) (0.58727) (0.40571) (0.15297)

LL1(-4) -4.504161 -8.803740 -22.75542 25.96988 -10.29451 19.07714 1.660076

(2.81189) (7.30609) (17.0055) (101.073) (9.84359) (130.158) (9.63693)

(-1.60183) (-1.20499) (-1.33812) (0.25694) (-1.04581) (0.14657) (0.17226)

LC1(-1) -3.667304 -5.860680 -16.24523 79.39529 -30.63037 -56.98395 -17.95434

(3.68974) (9.58700) (22.3145) (132.627) (12.9167) (170.792) (12.6455)

(-0.99392) (-0.61132) (-0.72801) (0.59864) (-2.37138) (-0.33364) (-1.41982)

LC1(-2) 3.877564 6.676494 17.91716 -102.0941 21.10439 132.3576 13.42457

(2.16730) (5.63125) (13.1072) (77.9028) (7.58705) (100.321) (7.42776)

(1.78913) (1.18562) (1.36697) (-1.31053) (2.78163) (1.31934) (1.80735)

LC1(-3) -4.272170 -8.333382 -21.38508 63.25802 -4.265096 -82.74989 -0.397992

(1.98081) (5.14670) (11.9794) (71.1995) (6.93421) (91.6884) (6.78863)

(-2.15678) (-1.61917) (-1.78516) (0.88846) (-0.61508) (-0.90251) (-0.05863)

LC1(-4) 2.572568 5.342054 13.55426 -20.09738 6.809614 4.738635 -3.633296

(2.08816) (5.42562) (12.6286) (75.0582) (7.31001) (96.6575) (7.15654)

(1.23198) (0.98460) (1.07330) (-0.26776) (0.93155) (0.04902) (-0.50769)

LD1(-1) 0.010206 0.018176 0.060057 -0.817185 0.263556 10.55862 0.008374

(0.03359) (0.08728) (0.20316) (1.20748) (0.11760) (1.55495) (0.11513)

(0.30381) (0.20825) (0.29562) (-0.67677) (2.24117) (6.79033) (0.07274)

LD1(-2) -0.040028 -0.112218 -0.253735 4.309371 0.569452 -6.134439 0.146184

(0.05429) (0.14105) (0.32831) (1.95132) (0.19004) (2.51285) (0.18605)

(-0.73735) (-0.79558) (-0.77285) (2.20844) (2.99646) (-2.44123) (0.78572)

LD1(-3) 0.080364 0.119621 0.346176 -1.672153 -1.183442 6.443154 0.036731

(0.14707) (0.38213) (0.88943) (5.28636) (0.51484) (6.80759) (0.50404)

(0.54644) (0.31304) (0.38921) (-0.31631) (-2.29864) (0.94647) (0.07287)

LD1(-4) 0.147643 0.229973 0.621927 -3.032689 -0.454401 -6.890726 -0.412299

(0.26028) (0.67629) (1.57412) (9.35582) (0.91117) (12.0481) (0.89204)

(0.56724) (0.34005) (0.39509) (-0.32415) (-0.49870) (-0.57193) (-0.46220)

LI1(-1) 0.007183 0.054820 0.084928 -0.502206 -0.353007 -2.714636 -0.119578

(0.11887) (0.30885) (0.71888) (4.27269) (0.41612) (5.50223) (0.40739)

(0.06043) (0.17750) (0.11814) (-0.11754) (-0.84833) (-0.49337) (-0.29353)

LI1(-2) -0.181101 -0.341210 -0.875158 2.730891 -0.223340 -1.990356 -0.443695

(0.08589) (0.22318) (0.51946) (3.08744) (0.30069) (3.97591) (0.29438)

(-2.10842) (-1.52887) (-1.68473) (0.88452) (-0.74276) (-0.50060) (-1.50723)

LI1(-3) 0.071192 0.157533 0.409313 -4.016498 1.816736 2.608944 1.542211

(0.14012) (0.36408) (0.84742) (5.03668) (0.49053) (6.48607) (0.48023)

(0.50807) (0.43269) (0.48301) (-0.79745) (3.70363) (0.40224) (3.21141)

LI1(-4) -0.135203 -0.178106 -0.554176 5.215701 -0.822062 -7.324097 -0.660407

(0.16658) (0.43282) (1.00742) (5.98760) (0.58314) (7.71063) (0.57090)

(-0.81165) (-0.41150) (-0.55010) (0.87108) (-1.40972) (-0.94987) (-1.15679)

LV1(-1) 0.004162 0.013340 0.029308 -0.427780 -0.038797 0.514693 0.006817

(0.00925) (0.02403) (0.05593) (0.33241) (0.03237) (0.42806) (0.03169)

(0.45002) (0.55517) (0.52404) (-1.28692) (-1.19841) (1.20238) (0.21509)

LV1(-2) -0.014562 -0.021432 -0.061775 0.263071 0.061784 -0.508781 -0.022947

(0.01307) (0.03396) (0.07905) (0.46983) (0.04576) (0.60504) (0.04480)

(-1.11405) (-0.63106) (-0.78146) (0.55992) (1.35024) (-0.84091) (-0.51224)

LV1(-3) -0.016408 -0.025325 -0.068643 0.332165 0.064005 0.415130 0.035303

(0.02315) (0.06015) (0.14001) (0.83215) (0.08104) (1.07161) (0.07934)

(-0.70876) (-0.42102) (-0.49027) (0.39917) (0.78976) (0.38739) (0.44495)

LV1(-4) -0.004166 -0.006330 -0.016960 -0.086558 0.035778 0.276714 0.046676

(0.00733) (0.01904) (0.04432) (0.26341) (0.02565) (0.33921) (0.02511)

(-0.56854) (-0.33245) (-0.38270) (-0.32861) (1.39467) (0.81577) (1.85850)

LH1(-1) 0.090371 0.111979 0.369639 -4.554235 1.485740 11.55551 0.882907

(0.14227) (0.36967) (0.86043) (5.11397) (0.49806) (6.58560) (0.48760)

(0.63519) (0.30292) (0.42960) (-0.89055) (2.98308) (1.75466) (1.81072)

LH1(-2)	-0.007696	0.006775	-0.014887	2.607119	0.108372	-4.389817	-0.045779
	(0.06941)	(0.18034)	(0.41976)	(2.49487)	(0.24298)	(3.21281)	(0.23788)
	(-0.11087)	(0.03757)	(-0.03547)	(1.04499)	(0.44601)	(-1.36635)	(-0.19245)
LH1(-3)	0.023703	0.061962	0.156702	2.128439	-0.545975	2.480604	-0.757606
	(0.10376)	(0.26958)	(0.62748)	(3.72944)	(0.36322)	(4.80266)	(0.35559)
	(0.22845)	(0.22984)	(0.24973)	(0.57071)	(-1.50317)	(0.51651)	(-2.13057)
LH1(-4)	0.120687	0.112376	0.391117	-3.829976	1.690713	3.630916	0.605197
	(0.10994)	(0.28565)	(0.66488)	(3.95173)	(0.38486)	(5.08891)	(0.37678)
	(1.09776)	(0.39340)	(0.58825)	(-0.96919)	(4.39301)	(0.71350)	(1.60622)
C	140.7212	212.4412	671.3743	-2236.910	666.3828	486.0639	466.8828
	(153.235)	(398.147)	(926.721)	(5507.98)	(536.429)	(7093.00)	(525.167)
	(0.91834)	(0.53357)	(0.72446)	(-0.40612)	(1.24226)	(0.06853)	(0.88902)
R-squared	0.998792	0.993784	0.996339	0.997598	0.999990	0.999580	0.999948
Adj. R-squared	0.981883	0.906754	0.945087	0.963969	0.999848	0.993693	0.999221
Sum sq. resids	23.89773	161.3353	874.0576	30876.41	292.8642	51203.72	280.6960
S.E. equation	3.456713	8.981516	20.90523	124.2506	12.10091	160.0058	11.84686
F-statistic	59.06733	11.41891	19.43997	29.66518	7040.355	169.7995	1375.353
Log likelihood	-39.95394	-69.55430	-95.74406	-150.9954	-78.79578	-158.8356	-78.13801
Akaike AIC	4.448641	6.358342	8.048004	11.61261	6.954567	12.11842	6.912130
Schwarz SC	5.790113	7.699814	9.389476	12.95408	8.296039	13.45990	8.253602
Mean dependent	90.63226	93.76452	376.2161	1377.097	1748.445	2430.716	484.9771
S.D. dependent	25.68135	29.41267	89.21083	654.5796	980.9255	2014.715	424.4629
Determinant Residual		0.000000
Covariance

Test de Cointégration de JOHANSEN

Date: 02/01/09 Time: 18:06

Sample: 1970 2004

Included observations: 33

Test
assumption:

Linear
deterministic

trend in the

data

Series: LY1 LL1 LC1 LD1 LI1 LV1 LH1

Lags interval: 1 to 1

Eigenvalue	Likelihood Ratio	5 Percent Critical Value	1 Percent Critical Value	Hypothesized No. of CE(s)
0.849850	179.8056	124.24	133.57	None **
0.718013	117.2336	94.15	103.18	At most 1 **
0.586166	75.45907	68.52	76.07	At most 2 *
0.449082	46.34348	47.21	54.46	At most 3
0.375869	26.66987	29.68	35.65	At most 4
0.264515	11.11382	15.41	20.04	At most 5
0.029125	0.975397	3.76	6.65	At most 6

*(**) denotes
rejection of the
hypothesis at
5%(1%)
significance

level
L.R. test
indicates 3
cointegrating
equation(s) at
5%
significance
level

Normalized Cointegrating Coefficients: 1 Cointegrating Equation(s)

LY1 1.000000 Log likelihood	LL1 0.133676 (0.04212) -941.3501	LC1 -0.358572 (0.01422)				LD1 -0.039942 (0.00266)				LI1 0.0.20455 (0.00225)			LV1 0.006042 (0.00045)		LH1 0.024097 (0.000217)		C 25.57425
Normalized Cointegrating Coefficients: 2 Cointegrating Equation(s)
LY1	LL1	LC1				LD1				LI1			LV1		LH1		C
1.000000 0.000000 Log likelihood	0.000000 1.000000 -920.4629	-0.405662 (0.22520) -0.236397 (0.04977)			-0.096248 (0.14444) 0.085192 (0.03192)				0.261880 (0.39519) -0.078277 (0.08734)			0.011593 (0.02309) -0.014117 (0.00510)			-0.370328 (0.63657) 0.035600 (0.14069)	-101.2342 29.08664
Normalized
Cointegrating
Coefficients: 3
Cointegrating
Equation(s)
LY1	LL1	LC1			LD1				LI1			LV1			LH1	C
1.000000	0.000000	0.000000			0.158107				-0.144118			-0.032144			0.086294	-21.45901
					(0.02315)				(0.11693)			(0.00550)			(0.22674)
0.000000	1.000000	0.000000			0.233416				-0.314870			-0.039604			0.301695	75.57519
					(0.04560)				(0.23031)			(0.01084)			(0.44659)
0.000000	0.000000	1.000000			0.627013				-1.000827			-0.107814			1.125622	196.6542
					(0.14775)				(0.74618)			(0.03511)			(1.44691)
Log likelihood	-905.9051
Normalized
Cointegrating
Coefficients: 4
Cointegrating
Equation(s)
LY1	LL1			LC1			LD1	LI1				LV1			LH1	C
1.000000	0.000000			0.000000			0.000000	5.747749				-0.178145			-11.18412	-4016.454
								(53.7603)				(1.57201)			(104.799)
0.000000	1.000000			0.000000			0.000000	8.383381				-0.255148			-16.33698	-5822.297
								(77.9471)				(2.27925)			(151.948)
0.000000	0.000000			1.000000			0.000000	22.36481				-0.686819			-43.56995	-15646.48
								(208.441)				(6.09502)			(406.329)
0.000000	0.000000			0.000000			1.000000	-37.26500				0.923434			71.28332	25267.63
								(339.908)				(9.93925)			(662.607)
Log likelihood	-896.0683
Normalized
Cointegrating
Coefficients: 5
Cointegrating
Equation(s)
LY1	LL1			LC1			LD1	LI1				LV1			LH1	C
1.000000	0.000000			0.000000			0.000000				0.000000	-0.015181			0.109158	-95.18805
												(0.00451)			(0.05807)
0.000000	1.000000			0.000000			0.000000				0.000000	-0.017456			0.134827	-102.9324
												(0.00591)			(0.07601)
0.000000	0.000000			1.000000			0.000000				0.000000	-0.052715			0.372813	-388.6118
												(0.01631)			(0.20986)
0.000000	0.000000			0.000000			1.000000				0.000000	-0.133132			-1.935578	-155.5385
												(0.02455)			(0.31586)
0.000000	0.000000			0.000000			0.000000				1.000000	-0.028353			-1.964817	-682.2265
												(0.01334)			(0.17156)
Log likelihood	-888.2903
Normalized
Cointegrating
Coefficients: 6
Cointegrating
Equation(s)
LY1	LL1			LC1			LD1				LI1	LV1			LH1	C
1.000000	0.000000		0.000000				0.000000				0.000000			0.000000	-0.217880	5.929235
															(0.14683)
0.000000	1.000000		0.000000				0.000000				0.000000			0.000000	-0.241241	13.34449
															(0.16325)
0.000000	0.000000		1.000000				0.000000				0.000000			0.000000	-0.762836	-37.47985
															(0.50720)
0.000000	0.000000		0.000000				1.000000				0.000000			0.000000	-4.803659	731.2451
															(1.95456)
0.000000	0.000000		0.000000				0.000000				1.000000			0.000000	-2.575626	-493.3699
															(0.36597)
0.000000	0.000000		0.000000				0.000000				0.000000			1.000000	-21.54322	6660.960
															(12.5953)
Log likelihood	-883.2211

Estimation du VECM

Date: 02/01/09 Time: 18:24

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Standard errors & t-statistics in parentheses

Cointegrating Eq:	CointEq1
LY1(-1)	1.000000
LL1(-1)	0.133676
	(0.04212)
	(3.17353)
LC1(-1)	-0.358572
	(0.01422)
	(-25.2223)
LD1(-1)	-0.039942
	(0.00266)
	(-15.0220)
LI1(-1)	0.020455
	(0.00225)
	(9.09466)
LV1(-1)	0.006042
	(0.00045)
	(13.5034)
LH1(-1)	0.024097
	(0.00217)
	(11.1022)
C	25.57425
Error Correction:	D(LY1)	D(LL1)		D(LC1)		D(LD1)		D(LI1)		D(LV1)		D(LH1)
CointEq1	-0.430715	-0.580505		-1.418382		33.81925		16.59082		-90.44913		6.130396
	(0.57113)	(1.18338)		(2.92584)		(10.3096)		(3.50635)		(32.4437)		(3.29331)
	(-2.75415)	(-2.49055)		(-2.48478)		(3.28035)		(4.73165)		(-2.78788)		(1.86147)
D(LY1(-1))	1.128497	1.081714		3.898838		34.83750		22.10816		-33.25280		24.75070
	(2.39546)	(4.96337)		(12.2717)		(43.2411)		(14.7065)		(136.077)		(13.8129)
	(1.47110)	(1.21794)		(1.31771)		(1.80566)		(1.50329)		(-0.24437)		(1.79185)
D(LY1(-2))	-1.677219	-2.684125		-7.688464		104.4778		34.29288		-367.7833		2.516808
	(2.14145)	(4.43707)		(10.9704)		(38.6560)		(13.1471)		(121.648)		(12.3482)
	(-1.78322)	(-1.60493)		(-1.70083)		(2.70276)		(2.60841)		(-3.02335)		(1.20382)
D(LL1(-1))	-1.284150	-1.598436		-5.311541		78.68691		-0.942130		-232.0976		4.355496
	(1.67451)	(3.46958)		(8.57837)		(30.2272)		(10.2804)		(95.1227)		(9.65575)
	(-1.76688)	(-0.46070)		(-0.61918)		(2.60319)		(-0.09164)		(-2.43998)		(0.45108)
D(LL1(-2))	-2.190368	-4.362032		-10.97016		33.42845		11.18970		-91.53003		5.796280
	(1.51369)	(3.13636)		(7.75449)		(27.3241)		(9.29304)		(85.9871)		(8.72840)
	(-1.44704)	(-1.39080)		(-1.41468)		(1.22340)		(1.20409)		(-1.06446)		(0.66407)
D(LC1(-1))	0.234009	0.314965		1.125616		-33.11707		-1.052314		105.0301		-5.943697
	(1.01616)	(2.10548)		(5.20569)		(18.3430)		(6.23854)		(57.7242)		(5.85949)
	(1.23029)	(0.14959)		(0.21623)		(-1.80543)		(-0.16868)		(1.81951)		(-1.01437)
D(LC1(-2))	1.192081	2.263658		5.918494		-22.91446		-8.830030		88.81067		-2.193364
	(0.90682)	(1.87893)		(4.64556)		(16.3693)		(5.56727)		(51.5131)		(5.22900)
	(1.31457)	(1.20476)		(1.27401)		(-1.39984)		(-1.58606)		(1.72404)		(-0.41946)
D(LD1(-1))	-0.009276	-0.014194		-0.015241		1.177110		0.694806		6.053097		0.203100
(0.03107)			(0.06437)		(0.15916)		(0.56084)		(0.19074)		(1.76491)		(0.17915)
(-1.29857)			(-0.22048)		(-0.09575)		(2.09885)		(3.64263)		(3.42968)		(1.13366)
D(LD1(-2)) 0.008055			0.024226		0.076539		4.747023		1.085077		-5.610636		0.460794
(0.05112)			(0.10592)		(0.26188)		(0.92279)		(0.31384)		(2.90395)		(0.29478)
(1.15757)			(0.22872)		(0.29226)		(5.14421)		(3.45737)		(-1.93207)		(1.56320)
D(LI1(-1)) 0.020320			0.042180		0.076905		-2.791466		-0.330022		6.800664		-0.233518
(0.05029)			(0.10421)		(0.25765)		(0.90787)		(0.30877)		(2.85700)		(0.29001)
(1.40402)			(0.40477)		(0.29849)		(-3.07475)		(-1.06883)		(2.38036)		(-0.80521)
D(LI1(-2)) -0.015018			-0.047471		-0.107140		-1.668803		-0.463985		4.041318		-0.111440
(0.02944)			(0.06099)		(0.15079)		(0.53135)		(0.18071)		(1.67211)		(0.16973)
(-1.51020)			(-0.77834)		(-0.71050)		(-3.14070)		(-2.56752)		(2.41689)		(-0.65656)
D(LV1(-1)) -0.001844			-0.003126		-0.011455		-0.427682		-0.146341		0.276840		-0.046336
(0.00524)			(0.01085)		(0.02683)		(0.09454)		(0.03215)		(0.29752)		(0.03020)
(-1.35199)			(-0.28802)		(-0.42694)		(-4.52363)		(-4.55113)		(0.93048)		(-1.53425)
D(LV1(-2)) -0.001427			-0.002837		-0.007876		-0.128724		-0.014954		0.296812		-0.000135
(0.00239)			(0.00495)		(0.01223)		(0.04310)		(0.01466)		(0.13562)		(0.01377)
(-1.59778)			(-0.57342)		(-0.64394)		(-2.98684)		(-1.02024)		(2.18850)		(-0.00978)
D(LH1(-1)) 0.018070			0.028494		0.083517		-0.172621		-0.322004		3.088715		0.311525
(0.05039)			(0.10440)		(0.25813)		(0.90958)		(0.30935)		(2.86237)		(0.29055)
(1.35861)			(0.27292)		(0.32354)		(-0.18978)		(-1.04090)		(1.07908)		(1.07218)
D(LH1(-2)) 0.081498			0.164966		0.400315		-0.642171		0.377409		0.273855		0.049255
(0.04051)			(0.08394)		(0.20755)		(0.73133)		(0.24873)		(2.30145)		(0.23362)
(2.01160)			(1.96518)		(1.92877)		(-0.87809)		(1.51735)		(0.11899)		(0.21084)
C -3.479734			-7.167479		-18.20827		54.37015		11.44097		-1041.779		4.755857
(3.73536)			(7.73964)		(19.1359)		(67.4281)		(22.9326)		(212.192)		(21.5392)
(-0.93157)			(-0.92607)		(-0.95152)		(0.80634)		(0.49890)		(-4.90962)		(0.22080)
0.594193			0.457167		0.513991		0.762676		0.921324		0.978836		0.712030
R-squared
Adj. R-squared 0.213750			-0.051740		0.058357		0.540185		0.847565		0.958995		0.442058
Sum sq. resids 481.1805			2065.783		12628.18		156792.7		18136.33		1552744.		15999.38
S.E. equation 5.483957			11.36272		28.09379		98.99266		33.66779		311.5229		31.62216
F-statistic 1.561844			0.898332		1.128079		3.427890		12.49105		49.33315		2.637420
Log likelihood -88.77414			-112.0865		-141.0532		-181.3571		-146.8450		-218.0428		-144.8391
Akaike AIC 6.548384			8.005406		9.815827		12.33482		10.17781		14.62768		10.05245
Schwarz SC 7.281252			8.738274		10.54869		13.06769		10.91068		15.36054		10.78531
Mean dependent 2.456250			2.759375		8.778125		55.48438		108.6562		24.09375		43.17531
S.D. dependent 6.184629			11.07971		28.95125		145.9860		86.23284		1538.400		42.33474
Determinant Residual			6.70E+13
Covariance
Log Likelihood			-827.2228
Akaike Information Criteria			59.13893
Schwarz Criteria			64.58963

Decomposition de la variance

Varia
nce

Deco
mposi
tion of

LY1:

Perio d	S.E.	LY1	LL1	LC1	LD1	LI1	LV1	LH1
1	3.166018	100.0000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000
2	3.434566	88.78875	0.255433	0.232175	0.954986	3.836985	5.524315	0.407360
3	4.330526	55.85259	0.189794	0.653421	8.261803	4.690334	23.18026	7.171788
4	5.533345	34.32353	0.799082	1.405027	20.82632	4.650721	28.02456	9.970762
5	6.094218	28.42829	3.003940	1.434894	20.82843	4.989316	30.92220	10.39293
6	6.495212	25.15319	3.091678	2.575879	18.43957	5.716328	35.69445	9.328908
7	7.124911	21.43765	3.784047	5.143314	15.32460	6.502566	40.05365	7.754173
8	8.031471	17.36426	9.940176	6.559195	12.19368	7.065318	40.75583	6.121545
9	9.042812	14.10563	19.59717	6.113521	9.791593	7.640403	37.88217	4.869505
10	10.07406	11.92515	29.48276	5.083773	7.890427	8.240118	33.44045	3.937319

Varia
nce

Deco mposi tion of LL1:

Perio d	S.E.	LY1	LL1	LC1	LD1	LI1	LV1	LH1
1	6.505603	94.06571	5.934287	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000
2	7.010347	83.57657	10.07871	0.776893	0.023892	3.334946	2.019910	0.189076
3	8.034988	63.63344	11.29928	1.369949	4.496112	3.938366	9.067245	6.195605
4	9.284231	47.89979	8.471767	1.034418	16.81915	4.194662	12.32599	9.254218
5	9.759850	43.97939	10.80565	1.086989	16.78605	4.367674	13.14408	9.830160
6	10.11034	41.26708	12.11331	1.620129	15.72255	4.655771	15.45850	9.162667
7	10.71902	37.34580	10.80400	4.636536	14.14146	5.099909	19.70944	8.262851
8	11.61754	32.07649	12.68109	7.136399	12.08002	5.571328	23.41177	7.042900
9	12.67631	27.05117	19.04007	7.241926	10.37787	6.221634	24.14013	5.927193
10	13.79260	23.04765	27.26171	6.260300	8.789329	6.970057	22.64694	5.024011

Varia
nce

Deco mposi tion of LC1:

Perio d	S.E.	LY1	LL1	LC1	LD1	LI1	LV1	LH1
1	16.08436	97.31131	2.335554	0.353139	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000
2	17.31035	86.32514	3.925646	1.829984	0.808705	3.758812	3.062248	0.289470
3	20.59584	61.09519	5.233247	1.375930	6.305047	4.541102	14.75875	6.690728
4	24.61979	43.22621	3.680631	1.064788	18.61194	4.663461	18.96264	9.790323
5	26.09443	39.01436	5.464012	0.948201	18.65535	4.938049	20.65677	10.32326
6	27.17269	36.29003	5.906809	1.755364	17.26946	5.421061	23.82952	9.527750
7	29.23841	32.04393	5.736163	4.807046	15.08114	5.974565	28.04664	8.310522
8	32.36688	26.57271	10.56185	6.938979	12.34308	6.434533	30.36456	6.784285
9	35.91615	21.81363	19.35001	6.727132	10.19908	7.016850	29.36724	5.526056
10	39.52889	18.35014	28.74407	5.683360	8.424489	7.689292	26.53383	4.574809

Varia
nce
Deco

mposi
tion of
LD1:

Perio d	S.E.	LY1	LL1	LC1	LD1	LI1	LV1	LH1
1	84.39920	21.48853	4.739922	1.880795	71.89075	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000
2	120.5865	14.90720	26.73661	13.89299	36.64431	0.089727	7.649234	0.079924
3	145.4018	14.66695	36.87421	15.23318	25.47720	0.088336	7.605123	0.054996
4	158.0911	12.48511	44.05073	14.33565	22.23675	0.079795	6.733414	0.078547
5	166.7851	11.24062	47.24062	13.24595	21.85524	0.081388	6.063669	0.272514
6	172.7692	10.55768	48.95246	12.55758	21.77678	0.099842	5.760324	0.295337
7	175.8486	10.28106	49.66282	12.50554	21.08673	0.157239	5.996350	0.310253
8	177.2694	10.17784	49.29196	12.61270	20.78679	0.227569	6.440928	0.462212
9	178.5172	10.04405	48.60954	12.80040	20.53440	0.315820	7.092625	0.603156
10	180.7489	9.804059	47.51358	13.20254	20.04994	0.464897	8.291520	0.673469

Varia
nce

Deco mposi tion of LI1:

Perio d	S.E.	LY1	LL1	LC1	LD1	LI1	LV1	LH1
1	27.31482	1.382414	0.556570	0.180649	32.47558	65.40478	0.000000	0.000000
2	41.63389	11.57427	7.975357	0.576778	23.26664	53.48263	2.964439	0.159883
3	57.34247	8.698827	26.91020	0.617096	16.02854	41.52623	4.798543	1.420573
4	83.42863	7.891199	44.98775	1.728302	9.201818	28.98647	3.069051	4.135412
5	113.4345	7.167360	56.11676	1.393522	7.239336	21.15118	2.628952	4.302893
6	143.3309	5.668528	63.19750	1.117207	5.479619	17.52158	2.801744	4.213818
7	172.1577	5.044975	65.68357	0.783732	4.968522	15.76179	3.683772	4.073635
8	199.4006	4.707841	66.32361	0.585720	4.866983	14.98818	4.525919	4.001742
9	225.0409	4.725253	65.97287	0.487237	4.774050	14.90559	5.130007	4.004988
10	249.4789	4.824651	65.23849	0.494854	4.672516	15.22196	5.504107	4.043418

Varia
nce

Deco mposi tion of LV1:

Perio d	S.E.	LY1	LL1	LC1	LD1	LI1	LV1	LH1
1	295.6217	9.632136	6.147125	12.96110	15.36207	1.916991	53.98058	0.000000
2	854.9493	1.473644	2.642407	11.82508	72.79886	0.387964	10.75580	0.116244
3	1102.015	3.837210	21.69256	17.38666	43.84798	1.909690	10.96476	0.361138
4	1274.991	8.285985	31.38963	15.69874	32.78372	1.973247	9.403412	0.465264
5	1352.445	7.386788	37.50900	15.00105	29.23499	2.059177	8.395427	0.413569
6	1411.961	6.939309	39.45202	13.86444	28.64417	2.363071	7.950036	0.786946
7	1481.635	6.484547	41.22723	12.92806	28.26787	2.731304	7.220927	1.140071
8	1548.026	6.299688	43.40205	12.79394	26.09425	3.430979	6.823676	1.155421
9	1600.545	6.150483	44.94849	12.55306	24.41528	4.267354	6.584247	1.081082
10	1642.200	5.961747	45.82866	12.27341	23.19360	5.331870	6.383136	1.027582

Varia

nce

Deco mposi tion of LH1:

Perio d	S.E.	LY1	LL1	LC1	LD1	LI1	LV1	LH1
1	18.14882	4.429773	8.502750	21.07472	0.896425	19.74914	0.046072	45.30112
2	22.87780	5.094728	5.513801	16.57893	8.583660	21.72962	0.087375	42.41189
3	28.82553	4.305368	21.37445	12.40377	5.497693	25.39454	0.577113	30.44706
4	37.67825	2.760669	40.74941	7.338573	3.955931	26.49235	0.433595	18.26947
5	47.59462	2.444990	53.26716	5.049063	2.545322	24.83184	0.371713	11.48991
6	57.90444	3.228139	59.17582	3.620227	1.740680	23.54776	0.666755	8.020619
7	68.75658	4.773956	61.06479	2.608511	1.971638	22.00921	1.230436	6.341454
8	80.41887	5.646941	61.93931	1.966357	2.564796	20.55918	1.634634	5.688782
9	93.08116	5.991689	62.48018	1.707501	3.082692	19.38134	1.927950	5.428645
10	106.6486	5.838800	63.25807	1.613682	3.374523	18.55496	2.141506	5.218458

Fonctions de Reponses impulsionnelles -Réponse de LY1 a un choc sur LL1, LC1, LD1, LH1

Response of LY1 to One S.D. LL1 Innovation Response of LY1 to One S.D. LC1 Innovation Response of LY1 to One S.D. LD1 Innovation Response of LY1 to One S.D. LH1 Innovation

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

0.4

0.0

-0.4

-0.8

-1.2

-1.6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0

-2.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

-Réponse de LL1, LC1, LD1, LH1 a un choc sur LY1

Response of LL1 to One S.D. LY1 Innovation Response of LC1 to One S.D. LY1 Innovation Response of LD1 to One S.D. LY1 Innovation Response of LH1 to One S.D. LY1 Innovation

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

-10

-20

-30

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Quelques Résultats pour les échantillons 2 (pays développés) et les échantillons 3 (pays en développés)

ADF TEST pour pays développés LY2 en Différence : I(1)

ADF Test Statistic -3.773341 1% Critical Value* -4.2712

5% Critical Value -3.5562

10% Critical Value -3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LY2,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 16:48

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(LY2(-1)) -0.972162 0.257640 -3.773341 0.0008

D(LY2(-1),2) 0.021316 0.187141 0.113904 0.9101

C 6.510794 2.931691 2.220832 0.0346

@TREND(1970) -0.222870 0.129311 -1.723518 0.0958

-squared 0.478534 Mean dependent var -0.006250

Adjusted R-squared 0.422663 S.D. dependent var 8.018846

S.E. of regression 6.092936 Akaike info criterion 6.568606

Sum squared resid 1039.468 Schwarz criterion 6.751823

Log likelihood -101.0977 F-statistic 8.564936

Durbin-Watson stat 2.006797 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000341

LL2 en Différence I(1)

ADF Test Statistic -4.212604 1% Critical Value* -4.2712

5% Critical Value -3.5562

10% Critical Value -3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LL2,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 16:52

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(LL2(-1)) -1.160269 0.275428 -4.212604 0.0002

D(LL2(-1),2) 0.078991 0.187964 0.420247 0.6775

C 8.978357 4.927039 1.822262 0.0791

@TREND(1970) -0.312605 0.227679 -1.373008 0.1806

R-squared 0.541525 Mean dependent var 0.015625

Adjusted R-squared 0.492403 S.D. dependent var 15.83239

S.E. of regression 11.27992 Akaike info criterion 7.800394

Sum squared resid 3562.626 Schwarz criterion 7.983611

Log likelihood -120.8063 F-statistic 11.02401

Durbin-Watson stat 2.019605 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000059

L en Différence : I(1)

ADF Test Statistic -4.195187 1% Critical Value* -4.2712

5% Critical Value -3.5562

10% Critical Value -3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(L,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 16:54

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(L(-1)) -1.148938 0.273871 -4.195187 0.0002

D(L(-1),2) 0.083708 0.188148 0.444906 0.6598

C 28.36144 13.34173 2.125770 0.0425

@TREND(1970) -0.987474 0.603956 -1.635009 0.1132

R-squared 0.533863 Mean dependent var -0.025000

Adjusted R-squared 0.483920 S.D. dependent var 40.50511

S.E. of regression 29.09835 Akaike info criterion 9.695708

Sum squared resid 23707.99 Schwarz criterion 9.878925

Log likelihood -151.1313 F-statistic 10.68940

Durbin-Watson stat 2.017042 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000074

LD2 en Différence : I(1)

ADF Test Statistic -3.802972 1% Critical Value* -4.2712

5% Critical Value -3.5562

10% Critical Value -3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LD2,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 16:57

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient
D(LD2(-1))	-1.062865
D(LD2(-1),2)	-0.029454
C	70.09658
@TREND(1970)	-0.601964
R-squared	0.547960
Adjusted R-squared	0.499527
S.E. of regression	152.7441
Sum squared resid	653261.0
Log likelihood	-204.1900
Durbin-Watson stat	2.003002

LI2 en Différence : I(1)

ADF Test Statistic -4.081272

Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

0.279483 -3.802972	0.0007
0.188847 -0.155967	0.8772
63.10635 1.110769	0.2761
2.928265 -0.205570	0.8386
Mean dependent var	0.465625
S.D. dependent var	215.9106
Akaike info criterion	13.01187
Schwarz criterion	13.19509
F-statistic	11.31379
Prob(F-statistic)	0.000049

1% Critical Value*	-4.2712
5% Critical Value	-3.5562
10% Critical Value	-3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LI2,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 20:00

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(LI2(-1)) -1.144501 0.280427 -4.081272 0.0003

D(LI2(-1),2) 0.049409 0.189615 0.260576 0.7963

C 1041.848 720.0771 1.446857 0.1590

@TREND(1970) -30.04743 33.43739 -0.898618 0.3765

R-squared 0.544536 Mean dependent var 20.12656

Adjusted R-squared 0.495736 S.D. dependent var 2388.389

S.E. of regression 1696.032 Akaike info criterion 17.82644

Sum squared resid 80542640 Schwarz criterion 18.00966

Log likelihood -281.2230 F-statistic 11.15859

Durbin-Watson stat 1.996177 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000054

LV2 en Différence : I(1)

ADF Test Statistic -4.853837 1% Critical Value* -4.2712

5% Critical Value -3.5562

10% Critical Value -3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LV2,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 16:59

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(LV2(-1)) -1.470098 0.302873 -4.853837 0.0000

D(LV2(-1),2) 0.128508 0.187626 0.684916 0.4990

C 554.6303 612.9929 0.904791 0.3733

@TREND(1970) -28.06257 29.70124 -0.944828 0.3528

R-squared 0.656903 Mean dependent var -0.412500

Adjusted R-squared 0.620142 S.D. dependent var 2466.083

S.E. of regression 1519.911 Akaike info criterion 17.60716

Sum squared resid 64683649 Schwarz criterion 17.79038

Log likelihood -277.7146 F-statistic 17.86982

Durbin-Watson stat 2.023657 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001

LH2 en Différence : I(1)

ADF Test Statistic -3.239488 1% Critical Value* -4.2712

5% Critical Value -3.5562

10% Critical Value -3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LH2,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 17:00

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LH2(-1))	-0.850540	0.262554	-3.239488	0.0031
D(LH2(-1),2)	0.003121	0.198037	0.015762	0.9875
C	-12.21893	13.06156	-0.935487	0.3575

@TREND(1970) 2.676849 0.928269 2.883698 0.0075

R-squared 0.411674 Mean dependent var 3.956875

Adjusted R-squared 0.348639 S.D. dependent var 39.76432

S.E. of regression 32.09256 Akaike info criterion 9.891594

Sum squared resid 28838.10 Schwarz criterion 10.07481

Log likelihood -154.2655 F-statistic 6.530895

Durbin-Watson stat 1.960378 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001731

Stationnarité du résidu, échantillon2

ADF Test Statistic -2.787108 1% Critical Value* -2.6344

5% Critical Value -1.9514

10% Critical Value -1.6211

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(RESID02)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/04/80 Time: 00:17

Sample(adjusted): 1972 2004

Included observations: 33 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
RESID02(-1)	-0.613236	0.220026 -2.787108	0.0090
D(RESID02(-1))	-0.156247	0.193450 -0.807687	0.4254
R-squared	0.344826	Mean dependent var	1.95E-11
Adjusted R-squared	0.323692	S.D. dependent var	5.68E-10
S.E. of regression	4.67E-10	Akaike info criterion	-40.07093
Sum squared resid	6.77E-18	Schwarz criterion	-39.98023
Log likelihood	663.1703	Durbin-Watson stat	1.833330

Estimation du MVCE : échantillon 2

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 16:39

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints Standard errors & t-statistics in parentheses

Cointegrating Eq: CointEq1

LY2(-1) 1.000000

LL2(-1) 0.133676

(0.04212)
(3.17353)

L(-1) -0.358572

(0.01422)

(-25.2223)

LD2(-1) -0.039942

(0.00266)

(-15.0220)

LI2(-1) 0.020455

(0.00225)
(9.09466)

LV2(-1) 0.006042

(0.00045)
(13.5034)

LH2(-1) 0.024097

(0.00217)
(11.1022)

C 25.57425

Error Correction: D(LY2) D(LL2) D(L) D(LD2) D(LI2) D(LV2) D(LH2)

CointEq1 -0.430715 -0.580505 -1.418382 33.81925 16.59082 -90.44913 6.130396

(0.57113) (1.18338) (2.92584) (10.3096) (3.50635) (32.4437) (3.29331)

(-2.75415) (-2.49055) (-2.48478) (3.28035) (4.73165) (-2.78788) (1.86147)

D(LY2(-1)) 1.128497 1.081714 3.898838 34.83750 22.10816 -33.25280 24.75070

(2.39546) (4.96337) (12.2717) (43.2411) (14.7065) (136.077) (13.8129)

(1.47110) (1.21794) (1.31771) (1.80566) (1.50329) (-0.24437) (1.79185)

D(LY2(-2)) -1.677219 -2.684125 -7.688464 104.4778 34.29288 -367.7833 2.516808

(2.14145) (4.43707) (10.9704) (38.6560) (13.1471) (121.648) (12.3482)

(-1.78322) (-1.60493) (-1.70083) (1.70276) (2.60841) (-3.02335) (2.20382)

D(LL2(-1)) -1.284150 -1.598436 -5.311541 78.68691 -0.942130 -232.0976 4.355496

(1.67451) (3.46958) (8.57837) (30.2272) (10.2804) (95.1227) (9.65575)

(-1.76688) (-0.46070) (-0.61918) (2.60319) (-0.09164) (-2.43998) (0.45108)

D(LL2(-2)) -2.190368 -4.362032 -10.97016 33.42845 11.18970 -91.53003 5.796280

(1.51369) (3.13636) (7.75449) (27.3241) (9.29304) (85.9871) (8.72840)

(-1.44704) (-1.39080) (-1.41468) (1.22340) (1.20409) (-1.06446) (0.66407)

D(L(-1)) 0.234009 0.314965 1.125616 -33.11707 -1.052314 105.0301 -5.943697

(1.01616) (2.10548) (5.20569) (18.3430) (6.23854) (57.7242) (5.85949)

(1.23029) (0.14959) (0.21623) (-1.80543) (-0.16868) (1.81951) (-1.01437)

D(L(-2)) 1.192081 2.263658 5.918494 -22.91446 -8.830030 88.81067 -2.193364

(0.90682) (1.87893) (4.64556) (16.3693) (5.56727) (51.5131) (5.22900)

(1.31457) (1.20476) (1.27401) (-1.39984) (-1.58606) (1.72404) (-0.41946)

D(LD2(-1)) -0.009276 -0.014194 -0.015241 1.177110 0.694806 6.053097 0.203100

(0.03107) (0.06437) (0.15916) (0.56084) (0.19074) (1.76491) (0.17915)

(-1.29857) (-0.22048) (-0.09575) (2.09885) (3.64263) (3.42968) (1.13366)

D(LD2(-2)) 0.008055 0.024226 0.076539 4.747023 1.085077 -5.610636 0.460794

(0.05112) (0.10592) (0.26188) (0.92279) (0.31384) (2.90395) (0.29478)

(1.15757) (0.22872) (0.29226) (5.14421) (3.45737) (-1.93207) (1.56320)

D(LI2(-1)) 0.020320 0.042180 0.076905 -2.791466 -0.330022 6.800664 -0.233518

(0.05029) (0.10421) (0.25765) (0.90787) (0.30877) (2.85700) (0.29001)

(1.40402) (0.40477) (0.29849) (-3.07475) (-1.06883) (2.38036) (-0.80521)

D(LI2(-2)) -0.015018 -0.047471 -0.107140 -1.668803 -0.463985 4.041318 -0.111440

(0.02944) (0.06099) (0.15079) (0.53135) (0.18071) (1.67211) (0.16973)

(-1.51020) (-0.77834) (-0.71050) (-3.14070) (-2.56752) (2.41689) (-0.65656)

D(LV2(-1)) -0.001844	-0.003126	-0.011455	-0.427682	-0.146341	0.276840	-0.046336
(0.00524)	(0.01085)	(0.02683)	(0.09454)	(0.03215)	(0.29752)	(0.03020)
(-1.35199)	(-0.28802)	(-0.42694)	(-4.52363)	(-4.55113)	(0.93048)	(-1.53425)
D(LV2(-2)) -0.001427	-0.002837	-0.007876	-0.128724	-0.014954	0.296812	-0.000135
(0.00239)	(0.00495)	(0.01223)	(0.04310)	(0.01466)	(0.13562)	(0.01377)
(-1.59778)	(-0.57342)	(-0.64394)	(-2.98684)	(-1.02024)	(2.18850)	(-0.00978)
D(LH2(-1)) 0.018070	0.028494	0.083517	-0.172621	-0.322004	3.088715	0.311525
(0.05039)	(0.10440)	(0.25813)	(0.90958)	(0.30935)	(2.86237)	(0.29055)
(1.35861)	(0.27292)	(0.32354)	(-0.18978)	(-1.04090)	(1.07908)	(1.07218)
D(LH2(-2)) 0.081498	0.164966	0.400315	-0.642171	0.377409	0.273855	0.049255
(0.04051)	(0.08394)	(0.20755)	(0.73133)	(0.24873)	(2.30145)	(0.23362)
(2.01160)	(1.96518)	(1.92877)	(-0.87809)	(1.51735)	(0.11899)	(0.21084)
C -3.479734	-7.167479	-18.20827	54.37015	11.44097	-1041.779	4.755857
(3.73536)	(7.73964)	(19.1359)	(67.4281)	(22.9326)	(212.192)	(21.5392)
(-0.93157)	(-0.92607)	(-0.95152)	(0.80634)	(0.49890)	(-4.90962)	(0.22080)
R-squared 0.594193	0.457167	0.513991	0.762676	0.921324	0.978836	0.712030
Adj. R-squared 0.213750	-0.051740	0.058357	0.540185	0.847565	0.958995	0.442058
Sum sq. resids 481.1805	2065.783	12628.18	156792.7	18136.33	1552744.	15999.38
S.E. equation 5.483957	11.36272	28.09379	98.99266	33.66779	311.5229	31.62216
F-statistic 1.561844	0.898332	1.128079	3.427890	12.49105	49.33315	2.637420
Log likelihood -88.77414	-112.0865	-141.0532	-181.3571	-146.8450	-218.0428	-144.8391
Akaike AIC 6.548384	8.005406	9.815827	12.33482	10.17781	14.62768	10.05245
Schwarz SC 7.281252	8.738274	10.54869	13.06769	10.91068	15.36054	10.78531
Mean dependent 2.456250	2.759375	8.778125	55.48438	108.6562	24.09375	43.17531
S.D. dependent 6.184629	11.07971	28.95125	145.9860	86.23284	1538.400	42.33474
Determinant Residual	6.70E+13
Covariance
Log Likelihood	-827.2228
Akaike Information Criteria	59.13893
Schwarz Criteria	64.58963

ADF TEST échantillon 3(Pays en développés) LY3 en Différence : I (1)

ADF Test Statistic -3.773341 1% Critical Value* -4.2712

5% Critical Value -3.5562

10% Critical Value -3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LY3,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 19:18

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LY3(-1))	-0.972162	0.257640	-3.773341	0.0008
D(LY3(-1),2)	0.021316	0.187141	0.113904	0.9101
C	6.510794	2.931691	2.220832	0.0346

@TREND(1970) -0.222870 0.129311 -1.723518 0.0958

R-squared 0.478534 Mean dependent var -0.006250

Adjusted R-squared 0.422663 S.D. dependent var 8.018846

S.E. of regression 6.092936 Akaike info criterion 6.568606

Sum squared resid 1039.468 Schwarz criterion 6.751823

Log likelihood -101.0977 F-statistic 8.564936

Durbin-Watson stat 2.006797 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000341

LL3 en Différence : I(1)

ADF Test Statistic -4.212604 1% Critical Value* -4.2712

5% Critical Value -3.5562

10% Critical Value -3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LL3,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 19:19

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(LL3(-1)) -1.160269 0.275428 -4.212604 0.0002

D(LL3(-1),2) 0.078991 0.187964 0.420247 0.6775

C 8.978357 4.927039 1.822262 0.0791

@TREND(1970) -0.312605 0.227679 -1.373008 0.1806

R-squared 0.541525 Mean dependent var 0.015625

Adjusted R-squared 0.492403 S.D. dependent var 15.83239

S.E. of regression 11.27992 Akaike info criterion 7.800394

Sum squared resid 3562.626 Schwarz criterion 7.983611

Log likelihood -120.8063 F-statistic 11.02401

Durbin-Watson stat 2.019605 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000059

LC3 en Différence : I(1)

ADF Test Statistic -4.195187 1% Critical Value* -4.2712

5% Critical Value -3.5562

10% Critical Value -3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LC3,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 19:21

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(LC3(-1)) -1.148938 0.273871 -4.195187 0.0002

D(LC3(-1),2) 0.083708 0.188148 0.444906 0.6598

C 28.36144 13.34173 2.125770 0.0425

@TREND(1970) -0.987474 0.603956 -1.635009 0.1132

R-squared 0.533863 Mean dependent var -0.025000

Adjusted R-squared 0.483920 S.D. dependent var 40.50511

S.E. of regression 29.09835 Akaike info criterion 9.695708

Sum squared resid 23707.99 Schwarz criterion 9.878925

Log likelihood -151.1313 F-statistic 10.68940

Durbin-Watson stat 2.017042 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000074

LD3 en Différence : I(1)

ADF Test Statistic -3.802972 1% Critical Value* -4.2712

5% Critical Value -3.5562

10% Critical Value -3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LD3,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 19:23

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient
D(LD3(-1))	-1.062865
D(LD3(-1),2)	-0.029454
C	70.09658
@TREND(1970)	-0.601964
R-squared	0.547960
Adjusted R-squared	0.499527
S.E. of regression	152.7441
Sum squared resid	653261.0
Log likelihood	-204.1900
Durbin-Watson stat	2.003002
Std. Error t-Statistic		Prob.
0.279483 -3.802972		0.0007
0.188847 -0.155967		0.8772
63.10635 1.110769		0.2761
2.928265 -0.205570		0.8386
Mean dependent var		0.465625
S.D. dependent var		215.9106
Akaike info criterion		13.01187
Schwarz criterion		13.19509
F-statistic		11.31379
Prob(F-statistic)		0.000049
1% Critical Value*		-4.2712
5% Critical Value		-3.5562
10% Critical Value		-3.2109

LI3 en Différence : I(1)

ADF Test Statistic -3.855490

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LI3,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 20:06

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LI3(-1))	-1.049021	0.272085	-3.855490	0.0006
D(LI3(-1),2)	0.015051	0.189173	0.079564	0.9371
C	175.5644	149.9251	1.171014	0.2515
@TREND(1970)	-7.019125	7.137056	-0.983476	0.3338

R-squared 0.516330 Mean dependent var -0.656250

Adjusted R-squared 0.464508 S.D. dependent var 491.4087

S.E. of regression 359.5996 Akaike info criterion 14.72433

Sum squared resid 3620733. Schwarz criterion 14.90755

Log likelihood -231.5893 F-statistic 9.963572

Durbin-Watson stat 1.997958 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000123

LV3 en Différence : I(1)

ADF Test Statistic -4.853837 1% Critical Value* -4.2712

5% Critical Value -3.5562

10% Critical Value -3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LV3,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 19:24

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(LV3(-1)) -1.470098 0.302873 -4.853837 0.0000

D(LV3(-1),2) 0.128508 0.187626 0.684916 0.4990

C 554.6303 612.9929 0.904791 0.3733

@TREND(1970) -28.06257 29.70124 -0.944828 0.3528

R-squared 0.656903 Mean dependent var -0.412500

Adjusted R-squared 0.620142 S.D. dependent var 2466.083

S.E. of regression 1519.911 Akaike info criterion 17.60716

Sum squared resid 64683649 Schwarz criterion 17.79038

Log likelihood -277.7146 F-statistic 17.86982

Durbin-Watson stat 2.023657 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001

LH3 en Différence : I(1)

ADF Test Statistic -3.239488 1% Critical Value* -4.2712

5% Critical Value -3.5562

10% Critical Value -3.2109

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(LH3,2)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/04/09 Time: 19:25

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(LH3(-1)) -0.850540 0.262554 -3.239488 0.0031

D(LH3(-1),2) 0.003121 0.198037 0.015762 0.9875

C -12.21893 13.06156 -0.935487 0.3575

@TREND(1970) 2.676849 0.928269 2.883698 0.0075

R-squared 0.411674 Mean dependent var 3.956875

Adjusted R-squared 0.348639 S.D. dependent var 39.76432

S.E. of regression 32.09256 Akaike info criterion 9.891594

Sum squared resid 28838.10 Schwarz criterion 10.07481

Log likelihood -154.2655 F-statistic 6.530895

Durbin-Watson stat 1.960378 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001731

Stationnarité du résidu, échantillon3

ADF Test Statistic -2.878571 1% Critical Value* -2.6344

5% Critical Value -1.9514

10% Critical Value -1.6211

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(RESID03)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/04/80 Time: 00:13

Sample(adjusted): 1972 2004

Included observations: 33 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
RESID03(-1)	-0.390170	0.135543 -2.878571	0.0072
D(RESID03(-1))	0.293456	0.173179 1.694530	0.1002
R-squared	0.217972	Mean dependent var	-0.044206
Adjusted R-squared	0.192745	S.D. dependent var	2.469471
S.E. of regression	2.218755	Akaike info criterion	4.490461
Sum squared resid	152.6091	Schwarz criterion	4.581158
Log likelihood	-72.09261	Durbin-Watson stat	2.105107

Estimation de MVCE (échantillon 3)

Date: 02/14/09 Time: 09:25

Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004

Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints Standard errors & t-statistics in parentheses

Cointegrating Eq: CointEq1

LY3(-1) 1.000000

LL3(-1) 0.133676

(0.04212)
(3.17353)

LC3(-1)

-0.358572

(0.01422)

(-25.2223)

LD3(-1)

-0.039942

(0.00266)

(-15.0220)

LI3(-1)

0.020455

(0.00225)

(9.09466)

LV3(-1)

0.006042

(0.00045)

(13.5034)

LH3(-1)

0.024097

(0.00217)

(11.1022)

25.57425

Error Correction:

D(LY3)

D(LL3)

D(LC3)

D(LD3)

D(LI3)

D(LV3)

D(LH3)

CointEq1

-0.430715

-0.580505

-1.418382

33.81925

16.59082

-90.44913

6.130396

(0.57113)

(1.18338)

(2.92584)

(10.3096)

(3.50635)

(32.4437)

(3.29331)

(-2.75415)

(-2.49055)

(-2.48478)

(3.28035)

(4.73165)

(-2.78788)

(1.86147)

D(LY3(-1))

1.128497

1.081714

3.898838

34.83750

22.10816

-33.25280

24.75070

(2.39546)

(4.96337)

(12.2717)

(43.2411)

(14.7065)

(136.077)

(13.8129)

(1.47110)

(1.21794)

(1.31771)

(1.80566)

(1.50329)

(-0.24437)

(1.79185)

D(LY3(-2))

-1.677219

-2.684125

-7.688464

104.4778

34.29288

-367.7833

2.516808

(2.14145)

(4.43707)

(10.9704)

(38.6560)

(13.1471)

(121.648)

(12.3482)

(-1.78322)

(-1.60493)

(-1.70083)

(2.70276)

(2.60841)

(-3.02335)

(0.20382)

D(LL3(-1))

-1.284150

-1.598436

-5.311541

78.68691

-0.942130

-232.0976

4.355496

(1.67451)

(3.46958)

(8.57837)

(30.2272)

(10.2804)

(95.1227)

(9.65575)

(-1.76688)

(-0.46070)

(-0.61918)

(2.60319)

(-0.09164)

(-2.43998)

(0.45108)

D(LL3(-2))

-2.190368

-4.362032

-10.97016

33.42845

11.18970

-91.53003

5.796280

(1.51369)

(3.13636)

(7.75449)

(27.3241)

(9.29304)

(85.9871)

(8.72840)

(-1.44704)

(-1.39080)

(-1.41468)

(1.22340)

(1.20409)

(-1.06446)

(0.66407)

D(LC3(-1))

0.234009

0.314965

1.125616

-33.11707

-1.052314

105.0301

-5.943697

(1.01616)

(2.10548)

(5.20569)

(18.3430)

(6.23854)

(57.7242)

(5.85949)

(1.23029)

(0.14959)

(0.21623)

(-1.80543)

(-0.16868)

(1.81951)

(-1.01437)

D(LC3(-2))

1.192081

2.263658

5.918494

-22.91446

-8.830030

88.81067

-2.193364

(0.90682)

(1.87893)

(4.64556)

(16.3693)

(5.56727)

(51.5131)

(5.22900)

(1.31457)

(1.20476)

(1.27401)

(-1.39984)

(-1.58606)

(1.72404)

(-0.41946)

D(LD3(-1))

-0.009276

-0.014194

-0.015241

1.177110

0.694806

6.053097

0.203100

(0.03107)

(0.06437)

(0.15916)

(0.56084)

(0.19074)

(1.76491)

(0.17915)

(-1.29857)

(-0.22048)

(-0.09575)

(2.09885)

(3.64263)

(3.42968)

(1.13366)

D(LD3(-2))

0.008055

0.024226

0.076539

4.747023

1.085077

-5.610636

0.460794

(0.05112)

(0.10592)

(0.26188)

(0.92279)

(0.31384)

(2.90395)

(0.29478)

(1.15757)

(0.22872)

(0.29226)

(5.14421)

(3.45737)

(-1.93207)

(1.56320)

D(LI3(-1))

0.020320

0.042180

0.076905

-2.791466

-0.330022

6.800664

-0.233518

(0.05029)

(0.10421)

(0.25765)

(0.90787)

(0.30877)

(2.85700)

(0.29001)

(1.40402)

(0.40477)

(0.29849)

(-3.07475)

(-1.06883)

(2.38036)

(-0.80521)

D(LI3(-2)) -0.015018

-0.047471

-0.107140

-1.668803

-0.463985

4.041318

-0.111440

(0.02944)

(0.06099)

(0.15079)

(0.53135)

(0.18071)

(1.67211)

(0.16973)

(-1.51020)

(-0.77834)

(-0.71050)

(-3.14070)

(-2.56752)

(2.41689)

(-0.65656)

D(LV3(-1)) -0.001844

-0.003126

-0.011455

-0.427682

-0.146341

0.276840

-0.046336

(0.00524)

(0.01085)

(0.02683)

(0.09454)

(0.03215)

(0.29752)

(0.03020)

(-1.35199)

(-0.28802)

(-0.42694)

(-4.52363)

(-4.55113)

(0.93048)

(-1.53425)

D(LV3(-2)) -0.001427

-0.002837

-0.007876

-0.128724

-0.014954

0.296812

-0.000135

(0.00239)

(0.00495)

(0.01223)

(0.04310)

(0.01466)

(0.13562)

(0.01377)

(-1.59778)

(-0.57342)

(-0.64394)

(-2.98684)

(-1.02024)

(2.18850)

(-0.00978)

D(LH3(-1)) 0.018070

0.028494

0.083517

-0.172621

-0.322004

3.088715

0.311525

(0.05039)

(0.10440)

(0.25813)

(0.90958)

(0.30935)

(2.86237)

(0.29055)

(1.35861)

(0.27292)

(0.32354)

(-0.18978)

(-1.04090)

(1.07908)

(1.07218)

D(LH3(-2)) 0.081498

0.164966

0.400315

-0.642171

0.377409

0.273855

0.049255

(0.04051)

(0.08394)

(0.20755)

(0.73133)

(0.24873)

(2.30145)

(0.23362)

(2.01160)

(1.96518)

(1.92877)

(-0.87809)

(1.51735)

(0.11899)

(0.21084)

C -3.479734

-7.167479

-18.20827

54.37015

11.44097

-1041.779

4.755857

(3.73536)

(7.73964)

(19.1359)

(67.4281)

(22.9326)

(212.192)

(21.5392)

(-0.93157)

(-0.92607)

(-0.95152)

(0.80634)

(0.49890)

(-4.90962)

(0.22080)

R-squared 0.594193

0.457167

0.513991

0.762676

0.921324

0.978836

0.712030

Adj. R-squared 0.213750

-0.051740

0.058357

0.540185

0.847565

0.958995

0.442058

Sum sq. resids 481.1805

2065.783

12628.18

156792.7

18136.33

1552744.

15999.38

S.E. equation 5.483957

11.36272

28.09379

98.99266

33.66779

311.5229

31.62216

F-statistic 1.561844

0.898332

1.128079

3.427890

12.49105

49.33315

2.637420

Log likelihood -88.77414

-112.0865

-141.0532

-181.3571

-146.8450

-218.0428

-144.8391

Akaike AIC 6.548384

8.005406

9.815827

12.33482

10.17781

14.62768

10.05245

Schwarz SC 7.281252

8.738274

10.54869

13.06769

10.91068

15.36054

10.78531

Mean dependent 2.456250

2.759375

8.778125

55.48438

108.6562

24.09375

43.17531

S.D. dependent 6.184629

11.07971

28.95125

145.9860

86.23284

1538.400

42.33474

Determinant Residual

6.70E+13

Covariance

Log Likelihood

-827.2228

Akaike Information Criteria

59.13893

Schwarz Criteria

64.58963

Année

BASE DE DONNEES

1970

2,48

1,955409145

0,17398024

0,08897383

6,76

0,23516362

0,027147143

1971

3,481254782

2,502147671

0,220153986

0,087986008

7,060540873

0,227584215

0,040903234

1972

4,436229205

2,861922267

0,261725209

0,091450845

7,323286688

0,224831944

0,046417827

1973

9,663716814

3,011920577

0,292980454

0,097273632

9,986292668

0,249916815

0,049117273

1974

10,5551969

1,713643873

0,177371978

0,10350574

17,83999027

0,233424625

0,000593449

1975

6,452554745

1,831257877

0,184592288

0,100800816

13,89068022

0,237098656

0,001328434

1976

7,240811849

1,798412274

0,179517387

0,09981993

17,14984599

0,017800344

0,000438279

1977

7,723785166

1,126671261

0,383334929

0,340236715

20,6751218

0,23318289

0,019927083

1978

7,668566002

1,18476262

0,403430463

0,34051586

20,5389471

0,255542645

0,017813568

1979

8,55567806

1,099004315

0,380281423

0,346023594

30,45402589

0,273523532

0,01563175

1980

9,343895998

1,336269229

0,455837381

0,341126901

53,53180304

0,280958501

0,03128371

1981

7,133568642

1,445270617

0,524352909

0,36280604

76,66580399

0,297226217

0,055243315

1982

6,866655107

1,618651053

0,555542417

0,343213206

80,75786089

0,286161698

0,070000349

1983

7,480123317

1,886426191

0,582842815

0,308966668

126,5704388

0,239807531

0,022345745

1984

7,321859903

2,021009838

0,526566246

0,260546107

186,4067688

0,188921453

-0,029133303

1985

7,61007174

1,450552511

0,597979239

0,412242393

222,4780662

0,248069967

0,041178274

1986

12,16993464

1,521538604

0,630994899

0,414708439

144,0878649

0,215282146

0,03776615

1987

5,803519403

1,500274956

0,490813131

0,327148786

229,1573175

0,199310767

0,030990519

1988

8,293864963

2,327566424

0,338527256

0,145442576

678,8782337

0,072882172

0,019334538

1989

4,841334418

1,901861416

0,436199278

0,229353871

38,0891526

0,052586425

0,030363585

1990

-8,129608071

1,675576176

0,423214066

0,252578231

-99,97580324

0,239609702

0,039084633

1991

-2,249208025

1,714613166

0,47479353

0,276909999

-1,234356819

0,248593393

0,042384295

1992

-1,382737388

3,446308062

0,751511435

0,218062756

4,645213411

0,232439437

0,020477582

1993

-17,19027276

8,440273589

3,516272394

0,416606447

-70,76042203

0,359893252

0,02738534

1994

2,738203897

10,47812479

1,973581796

0,188352576

12,38409555

0,286916264

0,011326924

1995

3,003849769

10,30667625

1,499170862

0,145456287

11,87246539

0,276024789

0,000642525

1996

3,9225

8,064016709

1,313183987

0,162844899

8,525

0,258814208

0,017407908

1997

3,542303159

10,2292127

1,735094379

0,169621498

5,920294863

0,266000226

0,028946935

1998

-0,055760138

10,5359761

1,869397624

0,177429942

5,339277947

0,223990512

0,034611099

1999

3,034811414

8,950226727

1,794723609

0,200522698

4,717662847

0,208730711

0,044224722

2000

-9,753401169

2,142479388

2,050016231

0,956842918

-21,13564669

0,228933999

0,27148131

2001

2,5

2,029399989

2,007506513

0,989211848

2,9

0,223508948

0,157146193

2002

3,87804878

2,145618696

2,051514238

0,956141108

2,830417881

0,20644482

0,205237528

2003

4,555059873

2,137216077

1,947181635

0,911083187

3,780271707

0,201296192

0,116251384

2004

4,536267685

2,143033463

1,852184015

0,864281425

3,11895276

0,215845202

0,00368972

Année

1970

7,2

1,831471146

0,644967138

0,352157968

5,05

0,220786308

0,02453357

1971

7,20180045

1,811227506

0,671001048

0,370467568

5,641845592

0,220967302

0,032213478

1972

5,878236529

1,806357873

0,701015616

0,388082354

5,275675676

0,223588294

0,033955703

1973

6,807666887

1,84531989

0,701593349

0,380201478

7,202026426

0,229176769

0,036098603

1974

9,777227723

1,861177544

0,703998661

0,378254436

10,77974328

0,220104163

0,034150984

1975

11,78128523

1,803803755

0,71209817

0,394775855

11,01631406

0,191216417

0,031675323

1976

7,917297025

1,83311916

0,714757955

0,389913526

8,033025236

0,207236835

0,029303174

1977

7,61682243

1,856246521

0,727619503

0,391984305

8,02211007

0,208825303

0,030849323

1978

7,642205818

2,216100313

0,847380791

0,382374745

6,438551215

0,209885147

0,032011601

1979

8,793868495

2,182931615

0,851611491

0,390122844

9,397600435

0,214930249

0,036329733

1980

10,71560994

2,433104682

0,850198632

0,349429533

12,06389239

0,208996308

0,04133405

1981

8,774279973

2,399908799

0,846727292

0,352816446

10,23665007

0,194077389

0,040777029

1982

7,358374384

2,441349215

0,86245915

0,353271521

7,767260579

0,18528957

0,043334104

1983

5,448809865

2,477440653

0,884293156

0,356938179

5,051809753

0,181076417

0,031346844

1984

4,460157737

2,455864978

0,89595907

0,364824238

4,715975846

0,188328411

0,030793848

1985

4,139546993

2,45476463

0,910879468

0,371065908

4,370515329

0,179966721

0,036996123

1986

3,6

2,441568517

0,929165807

0,380561021

1,925

0,181100235

0,042493091

1987

3,257722008

2,440334965

0,966124122

0,39589816

2,877115526

0,182350262

0,040818863

1988

3,7391914

2,437405213

0,985522807

0,404332772

3,249648332

0,187876668

0,040190667

1989

4,235188105

2,438934084

0,986399882

0,404438926

4,791483859

0,090488995

0,034791198

1990

3,976658742

2,405857264

1,002120607

0,416533691

5,372292369

0,191545476

0,030764042

1991

3,949282893

1,970779677

1,000256084

0,507543332

-13,13076392

0,18839506

0,00579438

1992

3,039392122

1,991394325

0,985407738

0,494833055

4,188733751

0,17754598

0,003051534

1993

-26,39239278

1,906236204

0,953804522

0,500360092

-11,59889094

0,174368543

0,003572745

1994

3,137358292

1,933415729

0,957157262

0,495060243

2,273915316

0,183646884

-0,002987866

1995

2,249488753

1,901997219

0,97693991

0,513638979

2,223358037

0,18312048

0,005507464

1996

1,898249144

0,990730685

0,521918152

2,175

0,179029069

0,013398736

1997

2,794117647

1,901776965

1,002823038

0,527308437

1,712747737

0,180178668

0,029925539

1998

3,147353362

1,883657406

1,017726787

0,540292934

1,154678855

0,181398918

0,040143803

1999

2,727693019

0,924094606

0,972957281

1,052876269

1,165279429

0,166900818

0,030976899

2000

-9,9909991

2,126227044

0,977203373

0,559595026

-5,970850974

0,20675219

0,001581844

2001

1,9

2,063695077

1,302716632

0,585884103

1,76

0,802397224

-0,022716414

2002

2,183513248

2,067838438

1,119035398

0,592802232

1,547911558

0,181767902

-0,00883467

2003

1,944777911

2,018077439

1,123322014

0,707077674

1,717880484

0,18176283

6,00285E-05

2004

1,789919925

1,994301809

1,223154473

0,613038934

2,04567089

0,191084768

0,006275155

Année

1970

1,51

1,957313209

0,272155205

0,087954113

8,17

0,233219341

0,28257271

1971

-0,390320063

2,512817689

0,318510684

0,086956485

8,605194604

0,227608433

0,042934907

1972

2,821316615

2,877020243

0,112602625

0,091463249

9,453340479

0,224836185

0,047459323

1973

12,95731708

3,035276453

0,392793712

0,109745292

12,84375327

0,259977151

0,049255083

1974

11,50350878

1,721387928

0,217519169

0,102368253

24,35314693

0,233479773

0,001454517

1975

0,8245832224

1,852366242

0,192629118

0,099706756

16,21848739

0,237269412

0,001215494

1976

6,445155141

1,797952016

0,177718021

0,098844697

24,20261911

0,017163499

0,002341242

1977

7,853107345

1,005653287

0,334828158

0,562945919

29,18918171

0,236614667

0,018388232

1978

7,710366684

1,229321071

0,355811021

0,335988791

28,477636131

0,261571286

0,015938852

1979

8,346848249

0,965598924

0,325413162

0,341889932

40,26930647

0,280344467

0,013222266

1980

7,698940701

1,2431891405

0,415789808

0,340283765

68,60742964

0,288266296

0,030263093

1981

5,239695454

1,3872298737

0,495469503

0,363701066

92,71713069

0,306467924

0,056539434

1982

6,232631997

1,559420509

0,534118849

0,34251111

90,84631993

0,293202829

0,071861721

1983

10,12705521

1,855157675

0,569135056

0,306785274

136,0547068

0,242478193

0,021936441

1984

10,89243299

2,0084159

0,518988745

0,258407009

192,7175736

0,188933618

-0,030362612

1985

11,68910649

1,373067646

0,570925116

0,415802614

225,1881747

0,253958341

0,041539873

1986

21,56164384

1,459147632

0,608825478

0,417247347

144,6548156

0,217823619

0,037414695

1987

8,181203517

1,451173184

0,470482081

0,324208087

229,5332696

0,200036239

0,030570119

1988

12,35416669

2,320311087

0,323778156

0,139540839

679,2286736

0,070260724

0,018859096

1989

5,340255898

1,879326033

0,423340845

0,225262055

38,09144106

0,051700625

0,030260109

1990

-17,98979054

1,65373272

0,41283634

0,249639095

-99,98129757

0,240471322

0,039233791

1991

-8,749924877

1,807634522

0,567078943

0,278523952

2,264331236

0,249478196

0,042921491

1992

-6,578947368

3,477213161

0,749347672

0,215502369

4,759157773

0,232947254

0,02063879

1993

-5,264084607

9,184284793

3,75476861

0,408814624

-85,44764134

0,377153328

0,029600717

1994

2,336362512

11,28318743

2,008103475

0,177965782

27,63116031

0,290413528

0,011811701

1995

3,769424339

11,00392338

1,51075105

0,137292036

23,53304509

0,278084891

0,000534647

1996

5,855

8,463243455

1,319420529

0,155900114

14,885

0,260357334

0,017495449

1997

4,263309576

10,71570157

1,748330842

0,163155985

9,662676823

0,267551528

0,028929245

1998

-3,099019097

11,03402843

1,884897873

0,170825903

8,79142687

0,224765671

0,034510405

1999

3,34541208

9,418445946

1,803442011

0,191479786

7,442539219

0,209174499

0,044365273

2000

-9,514545537

2,142555592

2,060542047

0,961721626

-32,08828523

0,229151634

0,274129407

2001

3,3

2,129840013

2,017095206

0,994015096

4,05

0,217984628

0,158862619

2002

5,5528615

2,145981776

2,060646776

0,960239458

4,084574724

0,206663095

0,207131051

2003

7,052607398

2,13776848

1,954625978

0,914338612

5,747922438

0,201453598

0,117187639

2004

7,038626609

2,143694947

1,858414217

0,866921032

4,103907444

0,216031286

0,00367029

précédent sommaire suivant

"Là où il n'y a pas d'espoir, nous devons l'inventer" Albert Camus