Incidences de la crise économique mondiale sur les pays en voie de développement: cas de la Côte d'Ivoire

Annexe I : Effets d'un accroissement du paiement de la

dette publique extérieure.

Tableau I.1 : Sur la répartition sectorielle.

Source : Résultats des simulations

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,1 ,3 ,0 34,1 4

Tableau I.2 : Sur la répartition factorielle

es

LD/V WWnqN

s et e

Source : Résultats des Simulations

Annexe J : Le modèle Ivoire

Les équations du modèle :

** 5.3.1 Production

1. VA(j) = v(j)*XST(j);

2. CI(j) = io(j)*XST(j);

3. VA(j)=B_VA(j)*[beta_VA(j)*LDC(j)**(-rho_VA(j))+(1-beta_VA(j))*KDC(j)**(-rho_VA(j))]**(- 1/rho_VA(j));

4. VA(j) = LDC(j);

5. LDC(j)={[beta_VA(j)/(1-beta_VA(j))]*[RC(j)/WC(j)]}**sigma_VA(j)*KDC(j);

6. LDC(j)=B_LD(j)*SUM[l$LDO(l,j),beta_LD(l,j)*LD(l,j)**(-rho_LD(j))]**(-1/rho_LD(j));

7. LD(l,j)= {[(beta_LD(l,j)*WC(j))/WTI(l,j)]**sigma_LD(j)}*[B_LD(j)**(sigma_LD(j)- 1)]*LDC(j);

8. KDC(j) =B_KD(j)*SUM[k$KDO(k,j),beta_KD(k,j)*KD(k,j)**(-rho_KD(j))] **(-1/rho_KD(j));

9. KD(k,j)=[beta_KD(k,j)*RC(j)/RTI(k,j)]**sigma_KD(j)*B_KD(j) **(sigma_KD(j)-1)*KDC(j);

10. DI(i,j) = aij(i,j)*CI(j);

** 5.3.2 Income and savings

** 5.3.2.1 Households

11. YH(h)= YHL(h) +YHK(h) +YHTR(h);

12. YHL(h)= SUM[l,lambda_WL(h,l)*W(l)*SUM(j$LDO(l,j),LD(l,j))];

13. YHK(h)=SUM[k,lambda_RK(h,k)*SUM(j$KDO(k,j),R(k,j)*KD(k,j))];

14. YHTR(h) = SUM[ag,TR(h,ag)];

15. YDH(h) = YH(h)- TDH(h)- TR ('gvt', h);

16. CTH(h) = YDH(h)-SH(h)-SUM [agng,TR(agng,h)];

17. SH(h) = (PIXCON**eta)*sh0(h) + sh1(h)*YDH(h);

** 5.3.2.2 Firms

18. YF(f) = YFK(f) + YFTR(f);

19. YFK(f)=SUM[k,lambda_RK(f,k)*SUM(j$KDO(k,j),R(k,j)*KD(k,j))];

20. YFTR(f) = SUM[ag,TR(f,ag)];

21. YDF(f) = YF(f)-TDF(f);

22. SF(f) = YDF(f)-SUM[ag,TR(ag,f)]; ** 5.3.2.3 Government

23. YG = YGK+TDHT+TDFT+TPRODN+TPRCTS+YGTR;

24. YGK=SUM[k,lambda_RK('gvt',k)*SUM(j$KDO(k,j),R(k,j)*KD(k,j))]

25. TDHT = SUM[h,TDH(h)];

26. TDFT = SUM[f,TDF(f)];

27. TPRODN = TIWT+TIKT+TIPT;

28. TIWT = SUM[(l,j)$LDO(l,j),TIW(l,j)];

29. TIKT = SUM[(k,j)$KDO(k,j),TIK(k,j)];

30. TIPT = SUM[j,TIP(j)];

31. TPRCTS = TICT+TIMT+TIXT;

32. TICT = SUM[i,TIC(i)];

33. TIMT = SUM[m,TIM(m)];

34. TIXT = SUM[x,TIX(x)];

35. YGTR = SUM[agng,TR('gvt',agng)];

36. TDH(h) = PIXCON**eta*ttdh0(h)+ttdh1(h)*YH(h);

37. TDF(f) = PIXCON**eta*ttdf0(f)+ttdf1(f)*YFK(f);

38. TIW(l,j) = ttiw(l,j)*W(l)*LD(l,j);

39. TIK(k,j) = ttik(k,j)*R(k,j)*KD(k,j);

40. TIP(j) = ttip(j)*PP(j)*XST(j);

41. TIC(nm) = ttic(nm)*(PL(nm)+SUM[i,PC(i)*tmrg(i,nm)])*DD(nm);

42. TIC(m) = ttic(m)*[(PL(m)+SUM[i,PC(i)*tmrg(i,m)])*DD(m) +((1+ttim(m))*e*PWM(m)+SUM[i,PC(i)*tmrg(i,m)])*IM(m)];

43. TIM(m) = ttim(m)*e*PWM(m)*IM(m);

44. TIX(IA)=ttix(IA)*(PE(IA)+SUM[i,PC(i)*tmrg_X(i,IA)])*EXD(IA);

45. TIX(IB)=ttix(IB)*(PE(IB)+SUM[i,PC(i)*tmrg_X(i,IB)] *sum(j,EX(j,IB));

46. SG = YG-SUM[agng,TR(agng,'gvt')]-G; ** 5.3.2.4 Rest of the world

47. YROW = e*SUM[m,PWM(m)*IM(m)] +SUM[k,lambda_RK('row',k)*SUM(j$KDO(k,j),R(k,j)*KD(k,j))] +SUM[agd,TR('row',agd)];

We must make a différence here between the 2 categories of exported commodity

48. SROW=YROW-SUM[IA,PE_FOB(IA)*EXD(IA)]- SUM[IB,PWX(IB)*sum(j,Ex(j,IB))]-SUM[agd,TR(agd,'row')];

49. SROW = -CAB;

** 5.3.2.5 Transfers

50. TR(agng,h) = lambda_TR(agng,h)*YDH(h);

51. TR('gvt',h) = (PIXCON**eta)*tr0(h)+tr1(h)*YH(h);

52. TR(ag,f) = lambda_TR(ag,f)*YDF(f);

53. TR(agng,'gvt') = (PIXCON**eta)*TRO(agng,'gvt'); ** 5.3.3 Demand

54. C(i,h)*PC(i) = CMIN(i,h)*PC(i)+gamma_LES(i,h)*(CTH(h)- SUM[ij,CMIN(ij,h)*PC(ij)]);

55. GFCF = IT-SUM[i,PC(i)*VSTK(i)];

56. PC(i)*INV(i) = gamma_INV(i)*GFCF;

57. PC(i)*CG(i) = gamma_GVT(i)*G;

58. DIT(i) = SUM[j,DI(i,j)];

59. MRGN(i) = SUM[ij,tmrg(i,ij)*DD(ij)]

+SUM[m,tmrg(i,m)*IM(m)] +SUM[IA,tmrg_X(i,IA)*EXD(IA)] +SUM[IB,tmrg_X(i,IB)*sum(j,EX(j,IB))];

** 5.3.4 International trade

60. XST(j) = B_XT(j)*SUM[i$XSO(j,i),beta_XT(j,i)*XS(j,i) **rho_XT(j)]**(1/rho_XT(j));

61. XS(j,x) = B_X(j,x)*[beta_X(j,x)*EX(j,x)**rho_X(j,x) +(1-beta_X(j,x))*DS(j,x)**rho_X(j,x)]**(1/rho_X(j,x));

62. XS(j,nx) = DS(j,nx);

63. EX(j,x) = {[(1-beta_X(j,x))/beta_X(j,x)]*[PE(x)/PL(x)]} **sigma_X(j,x)*DS(j,x);

* Only for the exported commodity IA, because of the hypothesis on the elasticity

64. EXD(IA) = EXDO(IA)*[e*PWX(IA)/PE_fob(IA)]**sigma_XD(IA);

65. Q(m) = B_M(m)*[beta_M(m)*IM(m)**(-rho_M(M))+(1-beta_M(m)) *DD(m)**(-rho_M(M))]**(-1/rho_M(M));

66. Q(nm) =e= DD(nm);

67. IM(m)={[beta_M(m)/(1-beta_M(m))]*[PD(m)/PM(m)]} **sigma_M(m)*DD(m);

** 5.3.5 Prices

68. PP(j)*XST(j) = PVA(j)*VA(j)+PCI(j)*CI(j);

69. PT(j) = (1+ttip(j))*PP(j);

70. PCI(j)*CI(j) = SUM[i,PC(i)*DI(i,j)];

71. PVA(j)*VA(j) = WC(j)*LDC(j)+RC(j)*KDC(j)$KDCO(j);

72. WTI(l,j) = W(l)*(1+ttiw(l,j));

73. RTI(k,j) = R(k,j)*(1+ttik(k,j));

74. R(k,j) = RK(k);

75. P(j,i) = PT(j);

76. P(j,x)*XS(j,x)=PE(x)*EX(j,x)$EXO(j,x)+PL(x)*DS(j,x)$DSO(j,x)

77. P(j,nx) = PL(nx);

We must make a différence here between the 2 categories of exported commodity

78. (1+ttix(IA))*(PE(IA)+SUM[i,PC(IA)*tmrg_X(i,IA)])=PE_FOB(IA);

79. (1/(1+ttix(IB)))*(PWX(IB)+SUM[i,PC(IB)*tmrg_X(i,IB)])=PE(IB)

80. PD(i) =(1+ttic(i))*(PL(i)+SUM[ij,PC(ij)*tmrg(ij,i)]);

81. PM(m)= (1+ttic(m))*{(1+ttim(m))*e*PWM(m)+SUM[i,PC(i)*tmrg(i,m)]};

82. PC(m)*Q(m) = PM(m)*IM(m)+PD(m)*DD(m);

83. PC(nm) = PD(nm);

84. PIXGDP={SUM[j,PVA(j)*VAO(j)]/SUM[j,PVAO(j)*VAO(j)]* SUM[j,PVA(j)*VA(j)]/SUM[j,PVAO(j)*VA(j)]}**0.5;

85. PIXCON= SUM[i,PC(i)*SUM[h,CO(i,h)]]/SUM[i,PCO(i)*SUM[h,CO(i,h)]];

86. PIXINV = PROD[i$gamma_INV(i),(PC(i)/PCO(i))**gamma_INV(i)];

87. PIXGVT = PROD[i$gamma_GVT(i),(PC(i)/PCO(i))**gamma_GVT(i)]; ** 5.3.6 Equilibrium

88. Q(i2)= SUM[h,C(i2,h)]+CG(i2)+INV(i2)+VSTK(i2)+DIT(i2)+MRGN(i2)

89. LS(l)=SUM[j$LDO(l,j),LD(l,j)];

90. KS(k) = SUM[j$KDO(k,j),KD(k,j)];

91. IT = SUM[h,SH(h)]+SUM[f,SF(f)]+SG+SROW;

92. SUM[j$DSO(j,i),DS(j,i)] = DD(i);

Only for the exported commodity IA :

93. SUM[j$EXO(j,IA),EX(j,IA)] = EXD(IA);

** 5.3.7 Gross domestic product

94. GDP_BP = SUM[j,PVA(j)*VA(j)]+TIPT;

95. GDP_MP = GDP_BP+TPRCTS;

96. GDP_IB = SUM[(l,j)$LDO(l,j),W(l)*LD(l,j)]+SUM[(k,j)$KDO(k,j),R(k,j)*KD(k,j)] +TPRODN+TPRCTS;

We must make a différence here between the 2 categories of exported commodity :

97. GDP_FD = SUM[i,PC(i)*(SUM[h,C(i,h)]+CG(i)+INV(i)+VSTK(i))] +SUM[IA,PE_FOB(IA)*EXD(IA)]+ SUM[IB,PwX(IB)*sum(j,ex(j,IB))] -SUM[m,PWM(m)*e*IM(m)];

** 5.3.8 Other

98. LEON = Q('SER')-SUM[h,C('SER',h)]-CG('SER')-INV('SER') -VSTK('SER')-DIT('SER')-MRGN('SER');

99. OMEGA = 1;

Les variables endogènes :

** 5.1.1 Volume variables

C(i,h) Consumption of commodity i by type h households

CG(i) Public final consumption of commodity i

CI(j) Total intermediate consumption of industry j

DD(i) Domestic demand for commodity i produced locally

DI(i,j) Intermediate consumption of commodity i by industry j

DIT(i) Total intermediate demand for commodity i

DS(j,i) Supply of commodity i by sector j to the domestic market

EX(j,x) Quantity of product x exported by sector j

IM(m) Quantity of product m imported

INV(i) Final demand of commodity i for investment purposes (GFCF)

KDC(j) Industry j demand for composite capital

LD(l,j) Demand for type l labor by industry j

LDC(j) Industry j demand for composite labor

MRGN(i) Demand for commodity i as a trade or transport margin

Q(i) Quantity demanded of composite commodity i

VA(j) Value added of industry j

XS(j,i) Industry j production of commodity i

XST(j) Total aggregate output of industry j

** 5.1.2 Price variables

P(j,i) Basic price of industry j's production of commodity i

PC(i) Purchaser price of composite comodity i (including all taxes and margins)

PCI(j) Intermediate consumption price index of industry j

PD(i) Price of local product i sold on the domestic market (including all taxes and margins)

PE(X) Price received for exported commodity x) (excluding export taxes)

PE_FOB(IA) FOB price of exported commodity IA(x) (in local currency)

PIXCON Consumer price index

PIXGDP GDP deflator

PIXGVT Public expenditures price index

PIXINV Investment price index

PL(i) Price of local product i(excluding all taxes on products)

PM(m) Price of imported product m (including all taxes and tariffs)

PP(j) Industry j unit cost including taxes directly related to the use of capital and labor but

excluding other taxes on production

PT(j) Basic price of industry j's output

PVA(j) Price of industry j value added (including taxes on production directly related to the use of

capital and labour)

R(k,j) Rental rate of type k capital in industry j

RC(j) Rental rate of industry j composite capital

RK(k) Rental rate of type k capital (if capital is mobile)

RTI(k,j) Rental rate paid by industry j for type k capital including capital taxes

W(l) Wage rate of type l labor

WC(j) Wage rate of industry j composite labor

WTI(l,j) Wage rate paid by industry j for type l labor including payroll taxes

** 5.1.3 Nominal (value) variables

CTH(h) Consumption budget of type h households

GDP_BP GDP at basic prices

GDP_FD GDP at purchasers' prices from the perspective of final demand

GDP_IB GDP at market prices (income-based)

GDP_MP GDP at market prices

GFCF Gross fixed capital formation

IT Total investment expenditures

SF(f) Savings of type f businesses

SG Government savings

SH(h) Savings of type h households

SROW Rest-of-the-world savings

TDF(f) Income taxes of type f businesses

TDFT Total government revenue from business income taxes

TDH(h) Income taxes of type h households

TDHT Total government revenue from household income taxes

TIC(i) Government revenue from indirect taxes on product i

TICT Total government receipts of indirect taxes on commodities

TIK(k,j) Government revenue from taxes on type k capital used by industry j

TIKT Total government revenue from from taxes on capital

TIM(m) Government revenue from import duties on product m

TIMT Total government revenue from import duties

TIP(j) Government revenue from taxes on industry j production (excluding taxes directly related to

the use of capital and labor)

TIPT Total government revenue from production taxes (excluding taxes directly related to the use

of capital and labor)

TIW(l,j) Government revenue from payroll taxes on type l labor in industry j

TIWT Total government revenue from payroll taxes

TIX(x) Government revenue from export taxes on product x

TIXT Total government revenue from export taxes

TPRCTS Total government revenue from taxes on products and imports

TPRODN Total government revenue from other taxes on production

TR(ag,agj) Transfers from agent agj to agent ag

YDF(f) Disposable income of type f businesses

YDH(h) Disposable income of type h households

YF(f) Total income of type f businesses

YFK(f) Capital income of type f businesses

YFTR(f) Transfer income of type f businesses

YG Total government income

YGK Government capital income

YGTR Government transfer income

YH(h) Total income of type h households

YHK(h) Capital income of type h households

YHL(h) Labor income of type h households

YHTR(h) Transfer income of type h households

YROW Rest-of-the-world income

** 5.1.4 Other variables

LEON Excess supply on the last market

OMEGA Objective variable

Les Variables exogènes :

CMIN(i,h) Minimum consumption of commodity i by type h households

e Exchange rate (price of foreign currency in local currency)

CAB Current account balance

G Current government expenditures on goods and services

PWM(m) World price of imported product m (expressed in foreign currency)

PWX(x) World price of exported product x (expressed in foreign currency)

VSTK(i) Inventory change of commodity i

KD(k,j) Demand for type k capital by industry j

KS(k) Supply of type k capital

EXD(IA) World demand for exports of product IA(x)

LS(l) Supply of type l labor

TR.fx(h,"row") Remittances

TR.fx("firm","row") Foreign Direct Investissement TR.fx("gvt","row") Payments of debt

Les paramètres :

aij(i,j) Input output coefficient

B_KD(j) Scale parameter (CES - composite capital)

B_LD(j) Scale parameter (CES - composite labor)

B_M(m) Scale parameter (CES - composite commodity)

B_VA(j) Scale parameter (CES - value added)

B_X(j,x) Scale parameter (CET - exports and local sales)

B_XT(j) Scale parameter (CET - total output)

beta_KD(k,j) Share parameter (CES - composite capital)

beta_LD(l,j) Share parameter (CES - composite labor)

beta_M(m) Share parameter (CES - composite commodity)

beta_VA(j) Share parameter (CES - value added)

beta_X(j,x) Share parameter (CET - exports and local sales)

beta_XT(j,i) Share parameter (CET - total output)

eta Price elasticity of indexed transfers and parameters

frisch(h) Frisch parameter (LES function)

gamma_GVT(i) Share of commodity i in total current public expenditures on goods and services

gamma_INV(i) Share of commodity i in total investment expenditures

gamma_LES(i,h) Marginal share of commodity i in household h consumption budget

io(j) Coefficient (Leontief - intermediate consumption)

kmob Flag parameter (1 if capital is mobile)

lambda_RK(ag,k) Share of type k capital income received by agent ag lambda_TR(ag,agj) Share parameter (transfer functions)

lambda_WL(h,l) Share of type l labor income received by type h households

rho_KD(j) Elasticity parameter (CES - composite capital)

rho_LD(j) Elasticity parameter (CES - composite labor)

rho_M(m) Elasticity parameter (CES - composite commodity)

rho_VA(j) Elasticity parameter (CES - value added)

rho_X(j,x) Elasticity parameter (CET - exports and local sales)

rho_XT(j) Elasticity parameter (CET - total output)

sigma_KD(j) Elasticity (CES - composite capital)

sigma_LD(j) Elasticity (CES - composite labor)

sigma_M(m) Elasticity (CES - composite commodity)

sigma_VA(j) Elasticity (CES - value added)

sigma_X(j,x) Elasticity (CET - exports and local sales)

sigma_XT(j) Elasticity (CET - total output)

sigma_XD(IA) Price elasticity of the world demand for exports of product IA(x)

sigma_Y(i,h) Income elasticity of consumption

sh0(h) Intercept (type h household savings)

sh1(h) Slope (type h household savings)

tmrg(i,ij) Rate of margin i applied to commodity ij

tmrg_X(i,x) Rate of margin i applied to exported commodity x

tr0(h) Intercept (transfers by type h households to government)

tr1(h) Marginal rate of transfers by type h households to government

ttdf0(f) Intercept (income taxes of type f businesses)

ttdf1(f) Marginal income tax rate of type f businesses

ttdh0(h) Intercept (income taxes of type h households)

ttdh1(h) Marginal income tax rate of type h households

ttic(i) Tax rate on commodity i

ttik(k,j) Tax rate on type k capital used in industry j

ttim(m) Rate of taxes and duties on imports of commodity m

ttip(j) Tax rate on the production of industry j

ttiw(l,j) Tax rate on type l worker compensation in industry j

ttix(x) Export tax rate on exported commodity x

v(j) Coefficient (Leontief - value added)

RES Coefficient d'échelle