1.7 Projections
1.7.1 Most Likely Scenario
Any improvement in the socio-economic environment for the next
years will largely depend on who is in power. If President Mugabe remains in
power (regardless of whether elections are held or not), little improvement in
the economic situation is expected and the status quo will remain. Inflation
rates are likely to exceed the official forecast of 5 % in 2010 and spending
demands will continue (the administration is facing demands for pay rise of
200-300% from public servants). The government is currently spending 75% of its
revenue on salaries and allowances and therefore unlikely to either increase
the wage bill or put substantial investment in infrastructure.
The indigenization law will put off potential investors, the
ongoing power rationing will negatively impact on domestic industrial growth
and services particularly health care and education will therefore continue to
deteriorate. IMF has termed the government projections of economic growth of
4.7% in 2010 and 6.3% in 2011 by the Finance Minister as unrealistic and
projects a 2.2% growth in 2010 and zero growth in 2011. To foster economic
growth, the IMF has also called on the government to «resolve» land
ownership issues, improve labor market flexibility and reform the banking
sector. But such moves would be politically controversial and are unlikely to
be implemented by the current government within the next years. The
humanitarian needs in the country under this scenario are therefore likely to
remain the same, with the gradual shift to early recovery activities
1.7.2 Worst Case Scenario
Tensions between the various political parties are likely to
increase as the process of new constitution making continues. There are signs
that the constitution outreach programmes will spark ZANU-PF violence against
MDC formation supporters in rural areas since MDC is perceived to be seeking
limits on President Mugabe?s powers. This is likely to lead to more
displacement and increase in vulnerability. Increasing discontent within the
MDC- Tsvangirai party is also likely to lead to either a split within the party
or its withdrawal from the government of national unity as currently
constituted.
An election in 2011 or any time within this period under this
scenario would cause violence among supporters of different political parties,
leading to displacement and increase in humanitarian needs. Few investors are
also likely to invest in an election year or when there is uncertainty over
when elections would be held. However, the outcome of the elections could
gradually alter the dynamics, the investment environment, donor attitude and
the subsequent humanitarian needs if new leadership (Other than President
Robert Mugabe) is elected.
2. Humanitarian and Early Recovery Coordination and
Funding Mechanisms and Strategies in Zimbabwe 2.1 The Main humanitarian and
Early Recovery stakeholders
2.1.1 The Government of Zimbabwe
Governmental decentralized structures under the Ministry of
Local Government and Urban Development (MLGUD) ensure the liaison between local
and national authorities, NGOs and the United Nations in the event of any
disaster that requires response that exceeds the national capacity.
According to the current arrangements as stipulated in the
Joint Inter-Agency Contingency Plan agreed on between the Government of
Zimbabwe and the Humanitarian Coordinator (on behalf of all humanitarian
agencies operating in the country)10, The Department of Civil
Protection headed by a Director is the main focal point for any disaster in the
country. The Civil Protection Committee of which OCHA,UNDP as well as other UN
Agencies and International and National NGOs are members and which is chaired
by the DCP, comprises key government ministries, government departments,
security forces (Zimbabwe Army and Police), Zimbabwe Red Cross Society and the
City Council of Harare. The Civil Protection Committee (CPC) is responsible to
coordinate disaster response with national and international humanitarian
actors and direct Provincial and District level Protection Committees to
coordinate relief and preparedness at the Provincial and district level.
2.1.2 Provincial and district level partners
The Civil Protection Unit (CPU) is the main entry point for
disaster preparedness and response at the Provincial and district level. These
are headed by the Provincial and District Administrators respectively. At the
National level, the Department of Civil Protection, in collaboration with civil
society and humanitarian agencies, has been conducting national disaster
preparedness workshop annually for last three years in selected disaster prone
areas.
In 2009 and 2010, this has been extended with OCHA?s support,
and in partnership with international NGOs, civil society and UN agencies.
These workshops have played catalytic role in activating district level
disaster responders and bring them under the CPU framework.
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