CHAPTER 4 THE POSSIBILITY OF ADOPTING AFRICAN UNION
PROPOSAL OR OTHERWISE
Introduction
«If you think the Monarch is regressive, you do not
solve the problem by doubling the size of the Royal family». [Ian
Williams, July 26, 2005].
There is possibly nowhere else on the globe that a reformed
UNSC is awaited with much anticipation as on the African continent. In all U.N
structures, none is a bigger or frustrating target for U.N reformers than the
UNSC. For many years, states have been advocating its expansion arguing that
adding new members will remedy the democratic and representative deficit it
suffers. Nevertheless, schism on whether new members should have veto therein
has created a logjam to this project. In a bid to avoid marginalization during
this restructuring exercise, for Africa to be heard and recognized as an equal
partner in global politics, AU came up with a two-veto seat proposal. While AU
was hopeful that the September 2005,UNGA Summit would vote on a proposal, the
history's largest gathering of world leaders fell far short of completing the
major changes AU sought. The failure of any one proposal to elicit support from
the two-thirds of the UNGA members clearly indicated that the Second San
Francisco is unlikely. Considering the role of veto in global politics and the
P-5 veto-wielding members' vested interests, this chapter answers numerous
questions and outlines on how long will the Addis Ababa 53-member AU proposal
for two veto status seats, under the current state-centric system will sustain
pressure from within and outside Africa. The focus is on the pillars of the U.N
Charter such as Charter amendment, especially Article 108. Article 23 and the
AU's contenders voting behavior in the UNGA were analyzed.
The Possibilities of Adopting the African Proposal or
Otherwise
The effort to create a more effective UNSC that accounts for
the changed global security climate has become a geo-political challenge for
power and influence. Africa, a home to probably the largest number of
crisis-ridden in the world, feels that this opportunity to rectify the
imbalance within the main U.N Organ should not be missed. To this end, this
largest single bloc at the U.N is exercising its political and numerical clout
by refusing to back down on its demand for two veto-wielding seats in the UNSC
shake up.
As John Becker [2002:40] argues «In the UNGA, African
states account for nearly 30 percent of the votes, simply few states would have
to join these states in order to block passage of any proposed reforms».
As Diagram 4.1 indicates, in order to change the structure of the UNSC, African
position remains vital. The African approach to UNSC reform reflects the
continent's aspirations to make it more reflective of today's world landscape
of power, as opposed to 1945. Introducing the AU proposal, Nigeria's delegate
said it contained a `reaffirmation' of the commitment to strengthening the U.N,
including the UNSC, that the Council would be better placed to perform its
primary responsibility if it was more inclusive [Mark Migba 2005]. It is
believed that the proposed reforms will finally institutionalize Africa's
capacity to bring its viewpoint and perspective to global political debate.
Although there are insurmountable obstacles to face, notably, Charter
amendment, the two-thirds votes by the UNGA members and all veto-wielding P-5,
Africa presented an integrated vision of a just UNSC expansion, which
considered all geographic regions and guaranteed a balanced representation of
all civilizations and cultures.
Diagram 4.1: U.N General
Assembly-Geographical distribution of seats
Source: The United Nations Department of Public Information:
New York, 2005.
The AU over the past Summits reaffirmed its position that it
will accept nothing short of being offered two permanent seats with veto. The
September 14th-16th historical UNGA Summit was seen as a
unique occasion to take bold decisions in the areas of reforming the UNSC.
Paradoxically, when the U.S President appointed John Bolton as the U.S
ambassador at the U.N as soon as Congress went into a month-long recess, he
sent a warning signal to reformists that
the U.S was not keen on the U.N reform agenda. As Horma
Bartese [2005] puts it, «John Bolton released proposals that effectively
emasculated reform initiatives by the AU countries». John Bolton sent to
his fellow ambassadors to the U.N a list of 750 amendments to a document
outlining a blueprint for reform painstakingly compiled by the 59th
UNGA session President, Jean Ping. Lau Breckon [2005:2] who described John
Bolton as «Washington's diplomatic demolition expert,» observed that,
«his stance could effectively scupper AU ambitions for the continent to be
awarded two permanent veto power seats in an expanded UNSC». As the Summit
wrapped up the 35-page document, world leaders endorsed on U.N reforms had only
one sentence on the need for the 15-member Council to become «more broadly
representative, more efficient and transparent» [George Mackman, 2005:4].
At this level, compromise was virtually impossible as UNSC seats meant losers
and winners, with each group having drawn enough opposition to prevent a
resolution from gaining a two-thirds vote in the 191 UNGA. The 700-plus changes
at the very late stage heralded the U.S's résistance in making the UNSC
stronger. This state of affairs became a reminder to the AU bloc that, while
the 1965 reform was a product of increasing cohesion among the non-aligned
states, this harmony fell apart when put to test after the end of the
Cold-War.
Notwithstanding global consensus on the need to reorient the
UNSC, the global South's outlook remains different from those of the developed
and industrialized North. This means the success of the AU and U.N Secretary
General Kofi Annan's project of reforming the world body; mainly the UNSC
remains precariously hinged on the shifting and increasingly divergent
interests of the North and the South. While the AU pinned its hope on the
September 2005 UNGA Summit, expectations were dashed by the Summit document
outcome, which became «historic» to some, and «outrageous»
to others. Commenting on Summit outcome, the sharpest criticism came in the
closing speech by Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, who described the document
to have been «conceived in darkness and brought forth from the
shadows». The Indian ambassador at the U.N, Nirupam Sen, made the
astonishing charge explaining that «the most powerful member of the UNSC,
the U.S, was opposed to re-introducing resolutions on the expansion of the
Council because the aspiring nations [G-4 and AU members] had bitten off more
than they could chew» [Horma Bartese, 2005]. These sentiments were echoed
by the representative of Nigeria, Sola Ongunbanwo, who said, «President
Olusegun Obasanjo and AU
Commission chair Alpha Omar Konare are jointly working on jump
starting the process, African states want to return to the table to advance
what is diplomatically attainable, where for now the politically desirable is
not attainable»[Horma Bartese, 2005]. During the UNGA Summit, internal
rifts over rival formulas, the opposition of the U.S and the John Bolton
amendments successfully left the original document on UNSC reform in
tatters.
African countries erroneously perceive that because African
issues dominate more than 60 percent of the UNSC's agenda and that several
practices and historical factors deprived the continent of representation in
the veto permanent category, therefore, demanding two permanent seats with veto
power was non-negotiable. Although this sounds correct, it may not form the
linchpin for such demands. African problems may dominate debate in the UNSC but
may not threaten global stability and Great Powers' direct interests. This
however, is in contrast with the Middle East, where the situation may affect
the existing construction of power. According to House Freedom report [2002],
African issues dominate the UNSC because «African states are incapable of
maintaining collective security over their own continent». The current
UNSC reform debates have shown that issues of national interests take
precedence over other political imperatives. Thus, the 1965 event, the first
ever amendment to the U.N Charter may not repeat itself. This is because as
Horma Bartese [2005] observes, «Nationalist China, which had to be extra
careful for fear of losing its seat in the U.N, voted in favor of the UNSC
reform in order to maintain favor with the non-aligned states who had the power
to eject it from the U.N». The country's persistent pursuit for defending
national interests was expressed by the then USSR representative Nikolai
Fedorenko who opined that his country favored a redistribution of the
non-permanent seats because it «would inevitably reduce the share of the
Western countries' seats»[Horma Bartese, 2005]. His statement underscores
the continuing primacy of the nation-state in the perennial quest for prestige
and status in international relations, which is also reflected in the current
UNSC debate. In 1965, it is apparent that the USSR made a strategic decision to
tie the African and Asian states' desire for UNSC reform to the issue of
seating Communist China.
According to Theodore Shabad [2005:4], «The Bush
administration expressed its opposition to all proposals on the table. While
the administration has stated that it is open to a modest
expansion of the UNSC, it does not support an expansion of 10
or 11 new members». Instead, the U.S has formally backed Japan's bid for
permanent membership on the UNSC and has expressed its willingness to consider
`two or so new permanent members' and `two or three additional non-permanent
seats', allocated by region to expand the UNSC to 19 or 20[Theodore Shabad,
2005:4]. Japan, which hosts the largest concentration of American troops in
Asia, is the main U.S ally in the region, and Washington views Tokyo as a vital
geo-political counterweight to Beijing. The U.S position was reaffirmed on July
12, 2005 after the U.S Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, held talks with
the Japanese Foreign Minister, Nobutaka Machimura, in Tokyo. In addition, the
U.S supports Brazil on the grounds that this Latin American country comes in
without veto power [Theodore Shabad, 2005:4].
It is evident that the U.S reached its `reasonable' conclusion
from more traditionally sordid premises. If the U.S could not convince a mere
15-strong UNSC into backing the invasion of Iraq, then it would be harder for
it to twist the arms of 26 members. Thomas Hamilton [2005:5] argues that,
«The more revealing is that the U.S made it clear that it would not
support permanent seats for any country that snubbed the Bush regime build up
to the invasion». Just as Germany qualifies, AU, with all of its 52
members also condemned the war. While France and Britain back the G-4 proposal,
no Great Power ever came out in support of the AU formula. This was illustrated
in August 2005, when AU Summit delegates adopted the report by the High Level
Committee of 10 [in charge of selling AU's position], chaired by the Sierra
Leone's President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah. During the Summit, delegates said in
future the committee should make contacts at the highest levels and not through
officials. The general feeling was that officials like Ms Jendayi Frazer [The
U.S Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs] were too low and of no
«political substance» to represent official thinking in the Bush
regime [Herald 10 November 2005].
This was reiterated during the Khartoum AU Summit [23rd
-24th January 2006] when concerns were that the committee had not
done enough and had not approached the P-5 members to sell Africa's position.
In Sudan, President Mugabe charged that,
Assuming that the outcome of taking our campaign to the five
permanent members is to realize that they do not support Africa's position,
this summit must ask itself one question: Does the US, Britain or any of the
five permanent members have the right to block Africa's position to permanent
members of the UN? [The Herald, 27 January 2005]
The failure of AU proposal to draw much support from Great
Powers led Eddy Maloka [2005] to argue that the AU's «intransigent demand
for veto» could cost the world progress regarding the enlargement of the
UNSC. He adds, «We believe that the AU position was a strategic error ...
the `all or nothing' approach is not in the best interest of Africa». His
views were echoed by Adekaye Adebajo [2005] who feels that, «The Council
reform is unlikely to happen, but if the AU had accepted the G-4 proposal, the
UNSC reform would have been more likely». One may observe that Africa is
demanding more than it would appear that the U.N members or the U.N system is
capable of giving. Supporting this view, Jerome Cartillier [2005], concurs
that, «Many observers believe that by choosing to insist on having the
right to veto, Africa has failed a test of time and squandered an
opportunity». He adds that, «The AU position was also seen as
`tragic' because its non-compromise position on UNSC reform will in all
likelihood keep the continent outside an important political forum».
Although during the last Summit in Khartoum [Sudan] AU members went into the
trenches and said its position for full veto-seats was nonnegotiable, this new
power game paradigm places Africa in an awful situation. However, although
P-5's national interests have become a stumbling bloc, Africa, being the
largest bloc in the UNGA, and by the fact that the global South is not
represented in the UNSC, Africa richly deserves a seat in the UNSC with all
privileges.
Taking into account the December 2004 High-Level Panel on
Threats, Challenges, and Changes and the Kofi Annan's In larger
Freedom [2005] reports, neither model involves any expansion of the veto.
The 2004 report suggests that, «We recognize that the veto had an
important function in reassuring the U.N most powerful members that their
interests would be safeguarded. We see no practical way of changing the
existing members' veto powers». The panel only urged the use of veto to be
limited to matters where vital interests are genuinely at stake and refrain
from the use of the veto in cases of genocide and large-scale human rights
abuses. The 2004 report concludes that, «We recommend that under any
reform proposal, there should be no expansion of the veto» [Michael
Brenham, 2005:6]. The two alternative models proposed by the Panel and the U.N
Secretary General for achieving greater representativeness, attention almost
wholly focused on Model A, envisioning six new permanent seats, but without any
change to veto powers, and Model B, which would have added no new permanent
seats but
created a number of renewable four-year positions that would
be potentially available to enable the presence on the UNSC of all the most
important regional players. The G-4 proposed a plan similar to Model A. It is
apparent that if only the AU could have agreed with the final position of the
powerful G-4, and realized that an extension of the veto was unattainable, the
six-permanent seats model had every chance of winning the necessary UNGA
two-thirds support.
In their pursuit of raisons d'être, states use
whatever institutions available to serve their interests. In a world where the
U.S has no challenger, its global presence, as great as, of that of any empire
in history, trying to control its actions through the UNSC begins to resemble
the Roman Senate's efforts to control the emperor. The P-5 members that wield
the veto in the UNSC are unlikely to view with favor any encroachment into
their privileged realm, unless they believe the contenders' entry serves their
particular interests as it was in 1965. In addition, one may observe that the
idea that Great Powers will continue to participate, politically or
financially, in an institution whose purpose has become to limit their powers
has no precedent. If the UNSC continues to materially disagree with U.S foreign
policy on critical issues, the U.N could come to resemble its defunct
predecessor, the League of Nations. In spite of public declarations, the P-5
are content with the present arrangements and oppose any changes that might
dilute or take away their veto power or expand their club in veto category. The
U.N Charter Article 109 reserved the possibility of a General Conference for
the purposes of reviewing the U.N Charter [Thomas Hamilton, 2005:4].
Nevertheless, it is patently clear that the P-5 preferred setting the bar high
for any changes. They not only resisted efforts to convene such a conference
but also tacitly communicated their intention to safeguard their veto rights.
Considering the U.S build up to Iraq war, it can be deduced from its attitude
that no U.S leader will permit the UNSC to stand in the way of pursuing the
U.S's projected interests in national security.
The veto, the P-5 wield elevates them to the ranks of the five
most powerful countries in the world body, giving them the ultimate authority
to declare war and peace, and also decide on who should or not be subjected to
international sanctions. As Michael Brenham [2005:6] argues, «Although
arguably the UK and France as well as Russia are no longer considered Great
Powers, their permanent status with veto power gives them a substantial voice
in
international politics». As the debate over Iraq shows,
enhancing the UNSC's role is a principal objective of French and Russian
foreign policies. This is because these countries will be given a say about
where, when and how the U.S unparalleled military power will be projected so
long as Washington works through such framework. These P-5 with veto power are
in essence, guarding themselves, they will neither relinquish nor dilute their
veto power by allowing more veto-wielding members in their privileged club. It
may be observed that by insisting on veto, Africa may have pulled the plug on
its proposal since it is unlikely that the P-5 will amend Article 108 of the
U.N Charter, the most difficult step for any UNSC reform endeavors.
The U.S Department of State identifies votes of fundamental
national interest in the UNGA annually. As the U.S Department report [2005]
indicates, voting records of key African contenders may dent AU's hopes of
getting two proposed permanent seats with veto. The report indicates that
support for the U.S voting position on key issues over the past five years
among the key UNSC contenders has been low. Evidently, this report remains
vital to the U.S in considering the current reform agenda. According to the
report, the analysis of actual votes [not including consensus votes] in the
UNGA over a six-year period [1999-2004] reveals that five of the leading
candidates voted against the U.S more than 70 percent of the time.
According to the report [2005], the records of the three
leading African contenders are poor. Nigeria and South Africa voted with the
U.S just 25 percent of the time, while Egypt, a huge beneficiary of U.S aid,
sided with it in only 18 percent of the votes. In addition, as the report
indicates, of the 190 [excluding the U.S] members of the UNGA, Nigeria and
South Africa rank 104th and 106th respectively. Egypt
ranks very near the bottom at 168th , behind Sudan and just ahead of
the so called `rogue regimes' [Iran, Libya, Burma, and Syria]. The report
indicates that support for U.S voting positions in the UNGA fell since 1999 for
all African countries competing for the UNSC seats. In 2004, as the report
indicates, Nigeria voted with the U.S just 15 percent of the time, and South
Africa only 11 percent of the time. In 1999, these two countries voted with the
U.S 35 percent, and 40 percent of the time, respectively. Egypt's record was
pitifully low [8.5 percent] in 2004 [down from 29 percent in 1999]. Voting
exercise on key issues, African contenders are a cause of concern to the U.S.
The report [2005] suggests that South Africa and Nigeria voted against the U.S
position on key votes on average of 80
percent of the time between 2000 and 2004. Egypt voted
with the U.S just 16 percent. The U.S did n
ot receive a single vote of support from Nigeria,
South Africa, and Egypt on any key vote in 2001. The report
continues that worse than their actual voting records is the fact that
these countries' opposition to U.S priorities is increasing.
The report suggests that South Africa and Nigeria have sharply
reduced their level of support for the U.S on key votes since 1999. In
addition, in 2004, Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt voted with the U.S
on just two key votes.
The UNSC Contenders: Average Voting Coincidence with
the U.S. in the UNGA [1999-04].
Figure 4.1 AU -G-4 United Nations Security Council
Contenders
Source: The U.S Department of State: Bureau of
International Organization Affairs, Voting Practices in the United Nations,
2004
[August 10, 2005], Average Calculated by the Heritage
Foundation. * Does not include Consensus Resolutions.
As Figure 4.1 indicates, their records speak for
themselves.
Considering the level of support on
key issues by African contenders, with doubled veto as proposed by the
AU proposal, if adopted it will make it far more difficult for
the U.S to work through the expanded UNSC. Hence, the U.S is
unlikely to accept the AU reform roadmap. This incongruity in UNGA
voting by African countries jostling The
for the UNSC seats is likely to jeopardize their
expectations.
U.S is likely to perceive these countries being less
supportive of its policy priority once they are granted two
veto seats in the UNSC. Apart from the UNGA, African countries have
been als
o less supportive of U.S policy priorities in UNSC. This
can be illustrated by the 2003 voting -
in UNSC, when African non permanent members were among
the «Uncommitted Six» [Angola, Cameroon, Guinea,
Chile, Mexico, Pakistan], which stood defiant and refused to
endorse the U.S's war in Iraq [Lau Breckon, 2005:5]. The U.S
will view the expanded UNSC undermining its effort to combat terrorism and the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. It may perceive military action
in its interests being less likely to receive U.N support. Hence, this AU
reform route is likely to be abandoned.
Table 4.1
The UNSC P-5 and Contenders contributions to the U.N. Annual
Budget
Country
|
Share of Global Gross National income [%]
|
Share of World Population [%]
|
Contributions to regular U.N. Budget 2004-06[%]
|
USA
|
32.7
|
4.6
|
22.00
|
Japan
|
12.6
|
2.0
|
19.49
|
German
|
6.2
|
1.3
|
8.66
|
Britain
|
4.9
|
0.9
|
6.13
|
France
|
4.5
|
1.0
|
6.03
|
China
|
4.0
|
20.4
|
2.03
|
India
|
1.6
|
16.7
|
1.88
|
Brazil
|
1.4
|
2.9
|
1.52
|
Russia
|
1.1
|
2.3
|
1.10
|
South Africa
|
0.3
|
0.7
|
0.29
|
Egypt
|
0.3
|
1.2
|
0.12
|
Nigeria
|
0.1
|
2.1
|
0.04
|
P-5 members
|
47.2
|
29.2
|
35.26
|
G-4 Group
|
21.8
|
22.9
|
31.53
|
AU contenders
|
0.7
|
4.0
|
0.45
|
Source: James D. Fearon, Comments on the Report of the
High-level Panel, in: Yale Center for the Study of Globalization 2005, p. 89,
100. For the UN contributions: Scale of assessments for the apportionment of
the expenses of the United Nations, Res. of the UN General Assembly A/RES/58/1
B 3rd March 2004.
In area of cheque-book diplomacy, African contenders still lag
behind. The G-4 contenders, namely, Japan and Germany are pillars of the global
economy, both are bigger than UK and France, and both are more economically
powerful than any member of the UNSC except for the U.S [Lau Breckon, 2005:4].
As Table 4.1 indicates, Germany contributes 8.6 percent of the U.N. budget,
surpassed only by Japan [19.4%] and the U.S [22.0%]. Four permanent members of
the UNSC pay less, Britain [6.1%], France [6.0%], China [2.0%] and Russia
[1.1%][U.N report 2005]. Even in UNGA voting, Germany and Japan [members of the
G-4], their record is excellent [though it is thought to be not reliable by the
U.S report [2005]]. Surprisingly, they realized that in global politics, power
is not shared voluntarily and decided to give up their quest for veto seats in
an expanded UNSC. These countries realized that global powers with
veto power, financial and military control over the U.N are
only likely to allow that kind of reform, which reinforces and favors their
respective national interests.
Japan's contribution to the annual U.N budget and peacekeeping
operations, and its unsuccessful bid for a permanent seat, sends an indicative
signal to the AU, showing where one could draw a line when reform involves veto
power. Despite its high-powered lobbying and the tremendous influence it wields
as the world's biggest aid donor, Japan has failed to convince the majority of
the remaining member states that it richly deserves the title of a
«veto-wielding big power»[Michael Brenham 2005:6].
Although the amount of membership dues is assessed according
to a country's ability to pay. As table 4.1 indicates, AU contenders'
contributions remain contentious. Commenting on African countries contribution
to the U.N Wafula Okumu [2005:5] argues, «Payments are often still not
made on time. African countries are notorious for late payments and
delinquencies only matched by the U.S, which intentionally withholds payments
as a way of exerting pressure on the U.N or to make political points».
However, as indicated by the U.N Financial Regulations Rule 5.4, South Africa
and Egypt had already paid their dues, $5,196,166 and $2,135,411 respectively,
for 2005 by the end of January. Since 1996, South Africa has consistently paid
its U.N dues on time. Between 1991 and 2004, Egypt paid its dues in time six
times. As of 16 December 2004, South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria had paid their
full dues to the U.N regular budget. However, as Wafula Okumu [2005:5] argues,
«While Nigeria has always paid late, Kenya has been chronically
delinquent». Although financial capability is not listed amongst the U.N
selection criteria, it cannot be ignored, and may end up as de facto criteria
unless adequate provision is made to cater for poor countries. In addition, the
UNSC contenders must have sufficient financial resources to enable them to
staff their New York and Geneva U.N Missions with adequate and highly qualified
personnel. Furthermore, the UNSC must adopt resolutions it has the financial
capacity to implement.
The U.N Charter Article 23[1] does not mention any
qualifications, to which permanent members of the UNSC should conform. However,
the function of the UNSC suggests that the permanent members would be the
member-states most capable of performing this function. In area of promoting
international peace and security, all African contenders played crucial role
and their efforts have been commendable. As Wafula Akumu
[2005:5] argues, «In areas of troop contributions for peacekeeping
efforts, Nigeria is ranked 7th, South Africa is 10th, Kenya 13th and Egypt
49th». In this area of peacekeeping, Kenya claims the
distinction of being the second top African nation troop contributor to all U.N
missions. All AU contenders believe to have contributed positively to emerging
African values and practices in peace, justice and governance. While this
effort is commendable under Article 23, lack of financial clout hampers African
efforts to be heard in the UNSC corridors of power.
It is imperative that the principle of sovereign equality as
enshrined in the U.N Charter Article 2[1], finds expression in the UNSC
composition with all privileges currently enjoyed by the P5. It is undisputable
that the UNSC is outdated and its reform is needed to mirror the current
political realities. However, national interests, balancing representation and
efficiency have become major hindrance to the current reform debate. Most
importantly, the UNSC must be expanded to a reasonable number of states which
can reach decisions with dispatch in crisis, and membership should include a
reasonable cross-section of states that, relative to their region, can bring
economic, military, and political assets to implement collective decisions.
Although the African response has been cast as one of high principle,
considering the P-5 vested interests, turning on two vetoes seats, in reality
was seen as having been driven by familiar political imperatives. Five vetoes
already impaired the good performance of the UNSC, with their own national
interests, adding more may lead to gridlock, the UNSC will fall victim to
political impasse, conflicting interests, inflexibility and inability to
accommodate future change. In addition, consultations with capitals, time zone
differences, and multiple languages add to the burden. An overextended and
underfunded UNSC will be weaker than ever. This led Peter Walsum [2005:2] to
argue that, «No one can seriously believe a Council with 26 members can be
more effective than one with 15, but it has become politically incorrect to
point this out».
It is vital to focus on how to limit the use of veto, not on
how to proliferate it. As far as the right of veto, that numerous states would
want abolished is concerned, the elitist principle of power will undoubtedly
keep it, because its abolition is, as Paul Kennedy and Bruce Russett [2000: 23]
note, «a splendid idea, but a fully unrealistic one». This was also
ruled out on 9
August 2005, by the U.N Secretary General Kofi Annan, who
described it as »utopian» attempts to either abolish the existing
vetoes or create new permanent seats with veto powers. He said that, «It
is utopian to think we can do it. Many member states would want to do that, but
it is not possible». He added that P-5 are not willing to create
additional vetoes. The most important as Annan argues, is to have
«effective representation on the UNSC, and make it more democratic, to
ensure that voices of other regions are heard» [Wafula Akumu, 2005:5]. In
any reform exercise, there is bound to be much résistance from the
beneficiaries of the status quo. The G-4-AU compromise may help break the
current logjam by blending their proposals and requesting for veto power after
they have been granted permanent seats in the UNSC.
The AU must recognize that under the current state-centric
system, driven by national interests, proposing two veto-wielding seats must be
in tandem with perceived potential support abroad. Historically, the Charter
has only been amended once in 1963. Nevertheless, the P-5 vote on the 1963
amendment did not reflect their true preferences with respect to the reform
proposal, but were part of the larger Cold War strategic interaction. In the
event that the ongoing discusion fails to produce a new UNSC that will be
responsive to the needs of all stakeholders, capable of responding to current
global challenges, many countries will loose faith in the system. The worldview
will therefore continue to be «might makes right». This may not only
result in the dissatisfied countries looking for alternative mechanisms,
outside the U.N system for dealing with international peace and security, but
also in the elite states losing a very important tool for pursuing their
national interests under the guise of international security. There is also the
option, at least in theory, of discarding this system and transferring its
functions to the UNGA. The future UNSC reform requires that the small states
reassert their power in numbers, and vote together as they did in 1963.
Although African states maintain their demand for two veto-wielding seats, but
due to the fact that none has the military capabilities and influence to
justify such a position, the end of the U.N Secretary General, Kofi Annan, and
the 59th UNGA President, Jean Ping's tenure of office may slow the
tempo of this reform project.
|
|