ANNEXE 2 : Résultats Modèle 1
Dependent Variable: TCR
Method: ML - Binary Probit
Date: 10/31/15 Time: 10:42
Sample: 1 98
Included observations: 98
Convergence achieved after 11 iterations
Covariance matrix computed using second derivatives
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error z-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
AGE
|
0.007548
|
0.011578 0.651906
|
0.5145
|
|
AGEPRO
|
-0.015372
|
0.017640 -0.871465
|
0.3835
|
|
CIBLSPE
|
0.368876
|
0.383796 0.961127
|
0.3365
|
|
EDUC
|
1.117802
|
0.626314 1.784732
|
0.0743
|
|
ETHNIES
|
0.693193
|
0.403910 1.716207
|
0.0861
|
|
SECT_ACT01
|
0.001136
|
0.356678 0.003184
|
0.9975
|
|
SEXE
|
-0.655161
|
0.344516 -1.901682
|
0.0572
|
|
SUPZP
|
-5.28E-08
|
3.72E-06 -0.014181
|
0.9887
|
|
C
|
0.319636
|
1.083887 0.294898
|
0.7681
|
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.591837
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.494021
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.482919
|
Akaike info criterion
|
1.400135
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
20.75578
|
Schwarz criterion
|
1.637530
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-59.60659
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
1.496156
|
|
Restr. log likelihood
|
-66.26594
|
Avg. log likelihood
|
-0.608231
|
|
LR statistic (8 df)
|
13.31870
|
McFadden R-squared
|
0.100494
|
|
Probability (LR stat)
|
0.101345
|
|
|
|
Obs with Dep=0
|
40
|
Total obs
|
98
|
|
Obs with Dep=1
|
58
|
|
|
XIII
ANNEXE 3 : Résultats Modèle 2
Dependent Variable: TCR
Method: ML - Binary Probit
Date: 10/31/15 Time: 10:43
Sample: 1 98
Included observations: 98
Convergence achieved after 4 iterations
Covariance matrix computed using second derivatives
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error z-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
AGE
|
0.007602
|
0.010945 0.694601
|
0.4873
|
|
AGEPRO
|
-0.015368
|
0.017369 -0.884784
|
0.3763
|
|
CIBLSPE
|
0.368409
|
0.382019 0.964372
|
0.3349
|
|
EDUC
|
1.117593
|
0.618548 1.806801
|
0.0708
|
|
ETHNIES
|
0.693883
|
0.396450 1.750239
|
0.0801
|
|
SEXE
|
-0.653469
|
0.322306 -2.027484
|
0.0426
|
|
C
|
0.312743
|
0.953861 0.327871
|
0.7430
|
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.591837
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.494021
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.477575
|
Akaike info criterion
|
1.359320
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
20.75505
|
Schwarz criterion
|
1.543961
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-59.60670
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
1.434004
|
|
Restr. log likelihood
|
-66.26594
|
Avg. log likelihood
|
-0.608232
|
|
LR statistic (6 df)
|
13.31848
|
McFadden R-squared
|
0.100493
|
|
Probability (LR stat)
|
0.038248
|
|
|
|
Obs with Dep=0
|
40
|
Total obs
|
98
|
|
Obs with Dep=1
|
58
|
|
|
ANNEXE 3 : Table de prédiction
Dependent Variable: TCR
Method: ML - Binary Probit
Date: 10/31/15 Time: 10:43
Sample: 1 98
Included observations: 98
Prediction Evaluation (success cutoff C = 0.5)
|
Estimated Equation
Dep=0 Dep=1 Total
|
Constant Probability
Dep=0 Dep=1 Total
|
|
P(Dep=1)<=C
|
22
|
16
|
38
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
P(Dep=1)>C
|
18
|
42
|
60
|
40
|
58
|
98
|
|
Total
|
40
|
58
|
98
|
40
|
58
|
98
|
|
Correct
|
22
|
42
|
64
|
0
|
58
|
58
|
|
% Correct
|
55.00
|
72.41
|
65.31
|
0.00
|
100.00
|
59.18
|
|
% Incorrect
|
45.00
|
27.59
|
34.69
|
100.00
|
0.00
|
40.82
|
|
Total Gain*
|
55.00
|
-27.59
|
6.12
|
|
|
|
|
Percent
|
55.00
|
NA
|
15.00
|
|
|
|
|
Gain**
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
XIV
| 
