Will ASECNA meet the need of African air navigation for the 21th century - An analysis of ASECNA strategy for adopting CNS/ATM

2.4 Regulatory

In the absence of valid local carriers, ASECNA states have liberalized their skies because bilateral agreements (Principle of reciprocity) are no longer functioning. Although the deregulation process is on the way, with the ongoing implementation of the Yamoussoukro⁸ liberalisation decision, the open sky agreements, civil aviation codes are still obsolete and not harmonised. Texts on competition are not fully applied: Current regulations impose restrictions over the number of operating airlines, and frequency and capacity.

Western carriers want more liberalization, and would like to see the process speeded up, as they are in a position to dominate the market further.

⁸ Ivory Coast, 1999

2.5 Air Travel demand

2.5.1 Traffic figures

Africa accounts for about 3% of global air traffic in term of Passenger Kilometres performed (African Union, May 2005).

Figure 2.12: Regional share of global international scheduled air passenger traffic

Europe Latin America and Caribbeans

North America Middle East

Asia Pacific Africa

587,998 (29%)

132,934 (7%)

Percentage share by region
( Passenger-kilometres performed in millions, 2004)

354,353 (18%)

64,326 (3 %)

88,027 (4%)

785,828 (39%)

Source: UNESCAP, 2005⁹

This situation reflects its low income, and the lack of air transport infrastructure. This being said, the situation of air transport in Africa is not uniform. It varies from one region to another. Northern, Southern and Eastern Africa's air transport performance is good (Kenyan airways, South African, Ethiopian and Royal Air Maroc). ASECNA area remains in a difficult situation with less traffic and unreliable structures. ASECNA's figures show that the region generates about 7 million passenger traffic per year (2003), which is below what South Africa alone represents in term of annual air passengers.

⁹ United Nation Economic and Social Commission for Asia Pacific

Propensity to travel

Given the low level of incomes, and the widespread of poverty across the region, the propensity to travel is very low. Moreover, the tariffs are «very high», 20 to 30% higher than the rest of the world according to the African Union. High air travel fares reflect the low level of traffic, and limited load factors in most of the routes. Moreover, there are little frequencies between city pairs. That increases aircraft operating costs.

Passenger Traffic¹⁰

Figure 2.13: Evolution of passenger traffic (1994-2003)

8,0

7,0

6,0

5,0

4,0

4,0

7,3

3,0

2,0

1,0

0,0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

(Year)

Source: ASECNA, annual reports (1994-2003)

Passenger traffic has grown by about 75% from 1994 to 2003, increasing from about 4 million to around 7 million in 2003. This evolution is due to a sustained economic growth on the continent and worldwide. Traffic recovery is particularly significant in some countries. After recent political unrests in Madagascar and Congo, passenger traffic in main airports grew respectively by 70 and 17 per cent between 2002 and 2003. The increase of figures in the region is also driven by oil- related activities in Chad and

¹⁰ Ässengers Traffic in ASECNA main Airports

Equatorial Guinea. The construction of the pipeline between that country and the oceanic coast through Cameroon has stimulated traffic.

Passenger Traffic by Airport

Figure 2.14: Average Airport Passenger Traffic (2000-2004)

Dakar (Senegal)

Abidjan (Ivory Coast)

Libreville (Gabon)

Douala (Cameroun)

Brazzaville (Rep Congo)

Antanarivo (Madagascar)

Pointe Noire (Rep Congo)

Bamako (Mali)

Malabo (Guinea)

Port Genrtil (Gabon)

Cotonou (Benin)

Yaounde (Cameroon)

Ouagadougou (Burkina)

LOME (Togo)

Nouakchott (Mauritania)

Ndjamena (Chad)

Niamey (Niger)

787

700

500

484

1336

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

(Thousand Passengers)

Source: ASECNA, annual reports (2000-2004)

Among the main airports, Dakar airport is the first in the region with more than 1 million passengers per year. It's has been the fastest growing airport in term of passenger volume. The important tourism activity in Senegal is the major factor that explains this performance. The traffic is globally increasing in other airports.

Secondary airports in ASECNA receive insignificant passenger traffic and are often served by very small aircraft.

Domestic passenger traffic

Domestic markets are particularly poorly developed across the region. People tend to travel by road or rail despite the poor state of the network. Only the elite, and business men who can afford it, use air travel to move within countries. Only Gabon has a relatively developed domestic market with more than 340,000 passengers in 2003 (Bergonzi, 2006, P7).

Regional passenger traffic

While regional traffic has significantly increased within the other African regions, it has stagnated in West and Central Africa from 1994 to 2001.

Political trips, seminars, regional emigration and business travels are the main drivers of regional traffic. However, the mobility from one country to another remains extremely difficult. It's sometimes easier to reach another country within the region through Paris for instance. On the 276 regional city pairs, only 5 per cent of them have 150 passengers per day (table below). The busiest city-pair is Abidjan - Dakar.

Daily passenger	Number of city pairs	Percentage (%)
More than 150	14	5
70 - 150	28	10
30 - 70	69	25
10 - 30	69	25
Less than 10	96	35

Table 2.3: Daily passenger traffic between city pairs.
Source: Délia Bergonzi, 2006

The most frequent connections in ASECNA are: Dakar-Bamako, Dakar-Abidjan, Bamako-Abidjan, Douala-Libreville, and Cotonou - Pointe Noire. They all have more then 100,000 passengers per year. Dakar and Abidjan are the two destinations with the highest regional passenger traffic, performing respectively 350000 and 200000 passengers per year (OEDC, 2005). Dakar has 15 direct links with others regional cities and Abidjan is directly linked to 12 others West African cities. The heaviest traffic flows are the Gulf of Guinea (Abidjan-Accra-Lagos corridor), then the Dakar/Abidjan axis.

The lack of air links in the Central and Western regions is at a damaging situation with the presence of a number of landlocked states (e.g. Congo, Central African Republic, Chad, Mali, Niger), where aviation is needed most.

International Passenger traffic

Almost 50% of passenger traffic (6 million out of 11 in 2003) in western and central Africa is international. Traffic at major airports in ASECNA is presented in table below.

	2000	2001	2002	2003
Dakar	803.8	863.2	918.3	1005.6
Abidjan	744.6	6448	301.9	3127
Douala	198.8	252.9	246	283.5
Bamako	168.2	132.2	112.1	197.1
Antananarivo	198.2	209.9	98.5	176.1
Libreville	246.4	203.9	198.9	149.6
Malabo	42	64	73,9	100.2

Table 2.4: International traffic at major regional airports (Thousand).
Source: ASECNA

In international traffic, for the West and Central Africa region, and particularly in ASECNA, the dominant connection is towards Europe.

This traffic can be divided in 3 groups: The ethnic Passenger Group, who has ties with the former European colonial powers, France mainly, creates a natural emigration of workers in both directions (South-North, North-South). The Leisure and Tourism group, concerns high-income people who travel to Europe, America or Asia for reasons such as shopping, Visits to family and friends. The Business travellers, because of economic ties with Europe, and oil companies are also important drivers for air traffic in the region. A large part of the traffic is also due to governmental, non-governmental and international bodies' staff.

Traffic towards the Middle East is increasing, mostly due to the attraction of Dubai and
pilgrimage to Mecca. North Africa / West and Central Africa traffic is also increasing

due to the dynamism of Maghrebian airlines, which take a large share of the 6th freedom¹¹ traffic departing from Paris to ASECNA.

There is also a significant traffic between African sub regions and ASECNA, mainly towards South Africa. Traffic towards the United States of America is carried out essentially via Europe.

Cargo Traffic

Figure 2.15: Evolution of Cargo traffic (1994-2003)

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

(Year)

134

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

98

Source: ASECNA, annual reports (1994-2003)

Freight traffic has regularly increased from 1994 to 2000 due to economic upturn. The
decrease observed since 2001 is explained by a dramatic reduction of cargo traffic at

11 The right to carry passengers or cargo from a second country to a third country by stopping in one's own country.

main cargo airports (Pointe Noire and Brazzaville in the republic of Congo). But overall cargo traffic has increased by nearly 37 per cent since 1994.